Paris
The two highest scorers in the first round on April 23, 2017 will go through to contest a run-off on May 7, 2017. The race has been tightening for weeks, even though centrist Emmanuel Macron remains favourite.
According to the poll by Ipsos-Sopra Steria for Le Monde newspaper, Mr. Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen will tie on 22% each in the first round next Sunday, with the far-left’s Jean-Luc Melenchon and conservative Francois Fillon on 20% and 19% respectively.
That made the most likely second-round scenario one that pits Ms. Le Pen against Mr. Macron. Consistently with most other surveys, the poll showed Mr. Macron winning that face-off with 63% of the vote.
Other polls have also been showing the race tightening during April 2017, with the two leaders losing ground and the chasing pair, especially Mr. Melenchon, picking up support.
Mr. Melenchon’s rise on the back of a strong performance in television debates is worrying investors, who fear his hostility to the European Union and plans to repeal pro-business labour reforms.
Polls show that Ms. Le Pen, who is also hostile to the E.U. and wants to dump the euro currency, have consistently shown that she will not win the presidency regardless of who she faces in the run-off.
However, some polls show that should Mr. Melenchon reach the second round, he could win there.
Friday’s Le Monde poll had Mr. Macron beating Mr. Melenchon with 55% of the second-round vote, but it said Mr. Melenchon would beat Mr. Fillon and Ms. Le Pen, with the 65 year-old winning 60% in each case.
The poll was conducted on April 12 and 13 among 1,509 people.
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