CHENNAI: With no clarity emerging on who would form the next government of Tamil Nadu even after four days of feelers, discussions, and hard bargaining, all eyes are on two press meets scheduled around the same time by VCK leader Thol Thirumavalavan and AMMK leader TTV Dhinakaran on May 9.
Beyond the decision that the two leaders are expected to announce, another factor to consider is the steps that Governor in-charge RV Arlekar may take based on the complaint given by Dhinakaran that the TVK claimed his party’s lone MLA-elect’s support to form the next government using a forged letter.
On Friday (May 8), the CPM and CPI announced that they would support TVK leader C Joseph Vijay’s claim to form the next government. Along with TVK’s 107 seats (minus Vijay’s second seat) and Congress’s 5, the Left parties added two seats each, taking the total tally to 116 in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly.
(Even if the calculation is that Vijay resigning one of the two seats he won from would bring down the effective strength of the House to 233, any party or coalition staking the claim should have the support of 117 members.)
Earlier, Thirumavalavan had repeatedly asserted that he would take a decision in coordination with the Left parties, which was widely seen as his effort to shield himself from criticisms for breaking away from the DMK-led coalition. However, as Vijay was at touching distance of the throne, he began hard bargaining, including putting forth some demands that defied logic even in the surreal world of political negotiations.
Sample this: The party has two MLAs-elect in a House of 234. It was expected to ask for a share in power, and at the most, two Cabinet posts. Some said he would ask for the Deputy Chief Minister post. Yeah, OK. Quite high a demand, but not unusual. However, if sources are to be believed, the conditions put forth were more, much more.
The party wanted TVK to allocate the Tiruchy East seat – from where Vijay won – to Thiruma to contest. And make him the Deputy Chief Minister. And cabinet posts for the two MLAs-elect. And allocate the Chidambaram Lok Sabha seat that Thiruma holds now to the VCK.
Sources said TVK was open to allotting Tiruchy East and Dy CM post, and asked the VCK to join the coalition before discussing the rest. That went on for several hours on Friday. Now, Thiruma is expected to address a press meet in a little while to make a formal announcement on where his party stands.
Even as suspense was reigning high over what Thiruma and his party would do came another unexpected twist: AMMK leader TTV Dhinakaran marched to the Lok Bhavan on Friday evening alleging that the list of MLAs-elect that Vijay submitted included his party’s lone winning candidate.
According to him, S Kamaraj, the party’s nominee who won from Mannargudi, has gone missing, and raised the suspicion of him being purchased or kidnapped.
Kamaraj surfaced a little while later, this time with Dhinakaran, who alleged that the purported letter from Kamaraj that TVK submitted was fake. The AMMK leader met the Governor for the second time within a few hours, and sought action against TVK and Vijay.
To counter this, TVK issued a video showing Kamaraj sitting inside a vehicle writing the letter himself. But that did not close the chapter. TTV filed a formal complaint at the Guindy police station.
What would Arlekar do? Now that is a loaded question, as the TVK, Congress, Left parties, and several legal experts and political commentators are alleging that the Governor was playing an active role – at the behest of the Centre-ruling BJP – to prevent the Vijay-Congress combine from coming to power.
Many suspect that Arlekar could use AMMK’s allegation of horse-trading to take a more active intervention.
That may not be good for democracy. But then, when has democracy ever been a consideration in power play?