In 2018, President Donald Trump pulled out of the Iranian nuclear accord, promising that he would then negotiate a better deal. He couldn’t and didn’t.
Instead, Iran built up its nuclear program.
Then in February of this year, Trump again badly misjudged his leverage, starting a war with Iran that he apparently believed would be brief and successful, “a minor excursion” that would lead Iranian leaders to “cry, uncle.”
Instead, Iran seized the Strait of Hormuz.
Now Trump appears to be miscalculating yet again, believing that his blockade and economic pressure on Iran will succeed where his bombings failed. Trump cancelled a round of nuclear talks on Saturday and seems to think that “the US holds the cards,” as the White House put it.
The war will “come to an end very soon,” Trump told Fox News on Sunday. He added that Iran is running out of room to store its oil, which he seemed to believe would happen around Wednesday. After that, he said, “It just explodes.” Petroleum experts remain unconvinced.
While Iran is undoubtedly feeling the squeeze — filling tankers and exploring rail exports to evade the blockade — the severity of the storage crisis is debated. Shutting off wells causes long-term damage to oil fields and starves the regime of revenue, yet many analysts argue Tehran has weeks, if not months, before reaching a breaking point.
“No credible experts believe that Iran’s oil sector is about to collapse,” Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, an Iran watcher who is CEO of a London-based research organisation, said. “Trump’s commitment to the blockade and his repeated statements that Iran is on the verge of collapse suggest that someone outside of government is feeding him unrealistic and politically motivated assessments of the situation in an attempt to undermine diplomacy.”
Danny Citrinowicz, formerly a longtime Iran analyst for Israel’s military intelligence agency, said: “Contrary to the administration’s belief, especially the president’s, that a naval blockade would bring Iran to its knees, Tehran is unlikely to yield on its core strategic demands. Even under severe economic pressure, the regime is more likely to dig in, extending the deadlock, while the global economic fallout from disrupted maritime routes and potential strait closures steadily escalates.”
Trump has a record of extraordinary over-optimism about the Iran war. “We’ve already won,” he said on March 7. Two days later, he asserted that the war would be over “very soon.” On March 11, he announced, “We’ve won.” On March 20, he said the US was considering “winding down.” Six days later, he said Iran was “begging to make a deal.” By April 16, the war “should be ending pretty soon.” The next day, he added that peace talks were going so well that “most of the points are already negotiated and agreed to.” And so on and so on.
What does this mean?
“The Americans clearly have no strategy,” Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany said Monday. Speaking of the US, he added, “An entire nation is being humiliated.” The core issue is a mutual delusion of leverage. Both Washington and Tehran see the other side hurting and conclude that time is on their side.
That’s a classic problem with authoritarian personalities, whether in Tehran or Washington: They surround themselves with flatterers who tell them that everything is going swimmingly. My own bet is that Iran may be able to suffer longer, partly because Iran’s dictators don’t face midterms. But it’s also true that, like Trump, Iranian leaders seem cocky and overconfident and have repeatedly miscalculated.
They overreached in 1979 when they embraced the student seizure of the U.S. Embassy and held American hostages for 444 days, a foolish move that led to sanctions and isolation. They made things worse for themselves again when they continued to fight the Iran-Iraq war for six pointless years, even after they recovered their territory, at enormous human and economic cost. And then their role in terrorist attacks abroad, as well as repression at home, compounded their isolation and backwardness.
This Iranian tendency to overreach may have increased now that the war has given additional power to hard-liners in the Revolutionary Guard.
We now face two administrations wary of appearing weak, each perceiving the other as a paper tiger. It is a poor environment for diplomacy. Reports indicate Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade, a move that threatens the global economy with shortages of oil, gas, and essential commodities ranging from fertilizer to medicine.
Iran has floated an initial proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, decoupling the maritime issue from the broader nuclear program. The US has rejected this. However, with Pakistan attempting to mediate, there is an opening. Trump should engage in serious negotiations, even if the resulting arrangement is unpalatable—such as allowing Iran to profit from territorial transit while mines remain a threat in international waters. Any movement is preferable to a months-long blockade.
If a maritime deal is reached, Trump must use the remaining sanctions as leverage to address the nuclear program. While the maritime crisis is immediate, the nuclear issue remains paramount. Paradoxically, Trump’s initial threats in February nearly secured a favourable nuclear deal. Two months of war later, both sides feel emboldened. Faced with the prospect of concessions, both prefer to escalate, leaving the global economy as a hostage.
What could possibly go wrong?
The New York Times