When the Bulova watch factory in Providence, Rhode Island, closed in the 1980s, my father faced an abrupt end to his 30-year career. Like many manufacturers, Bulova moved production overseas, chasing cheaper labour enabled by new free-trade agreements. At 56, my father was a casualty of a new economic rulebook applied to an outdated workforce model.
There were no effective initiatives to help him or millions of other Americans transition to new roles, leaving cities hollowed out and fostering the political division that plagues us today.
This is history we are about to repeat. Artificial intelligence is transforming work faster than our workforce is adapting. Millions of Americans — from white-collar to blue-collar workers, and from entry-level to executive — may soon find themselves without prospects. Leaders across the political spectrum and the private sector acknowledge this crisis, yet a clear solution remains elusive.
I refuse to accept that an unemployment crisis is inevitable. The answer is not to slow down AI innovation, leaving us less competitive, nor is it generic reskilling that forces people into disconnected roles. Instead, we must build a modern transition system using better data to predict job losses and provide support to help workers shift between industries.
We need a grand bargain between the public and private sectors: employers must define skills essential to the AI economy and create pathways into jobs, while the government invests in training, incentives, and safety nets. Private firms are best positioned to identify emerging roles, critical skills, and shifts in demand. This bargain must start with businesses providing real-time, AI-powered insights into hiring plans, technology adoption, and skill needs.
This requires tearing down walls between business and education. As secretary of commerce implementing the CHIPS Act, I saw that new semiconductor plants were stymied by talent gaps in tool maintenance and electrical engineering. Companies used these findings to lobby states and schools, such as Maricopa Community College, to build accelerated certificate programmes.
Higher education should be modular, with employers as active partners. The country must shift from expensive degrees that risk obsolescence toward short, affordable, job-linked credits. People should be encouraged to pursue credentials that stand alone or stack over time, allowing for lifelong learning. A mid-career accountant displaced by AI does not need another master’s degree; she may benefit more from a four-month credential and temporary wage insurance that bridges pay gaps.
The funding model for higher education must also evolve. Public investment should hold schools to measurable labour market results. Texas offers a model where community colleges that award credentials in high-demand fields receive greater state funding. Such an approach rewards innovation while underperformers naturally fade.
We also need a modern apprenticeship system — emulated by many European countries — that allows workers to earn while they learn. A manufacturing apprentice could earn a wage while learning blueprint reading from a senior technician and taking classes. To make this work at scale, the private sector must be incentivised, perhaps through tax credits for on-the-job training. States could pilot tax reforms that reward worker retention, penalise layoffs, and encourage firms to reinvest AI-driven savings into job creation. This is a strategic necessity, not corporate charity.
Sceptics will argue that workforce reform has failed before. They are not wrong; the landscape is littered with underperforming initiatives. But history shows that real change occurs in times of crisis. After World War II, the GI Bill and land-grant universities supported millions of veterans, while research funding seeded advancements in aerospace and computing. Later, the financial crisis and the pandemic sparked growth in clean energy and fintech.
AI-driven mass unemployment is a potential crisis on the horizon. This country cannot withstand such an economic shock. Without solutions, anxiety will turn into rage, and political backlash will follow. A new grand bargain can help us meet this moment. We have the ingenuity; what is missing is the collective will.
Raimondo was the Secretary of Commerce during the Biden administration and the 75th governor of Rhode Island
The New York Times