As forewarned by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon ended last month with its weakest performance this century. It delivered 759.4 mm of rainfall against the long-period average of 868.6 mm, a deficit of 12.6%.

Concerns for the months ahead are greatest for the South and the Northeast. They have to reckon with deficits of 24.3% and 25.6% respectively. The other regions emerged with relatively minor shortfalls.

This uneven distribution is giving us a very skewed picture of the kharif (rainy) season, which contributes the bulk of India’s agricultural production. Nationally, the overall area sown is down just 1.2% from last year's record high. However, rice acreage has fallen by 3.7% and oilseeds by about 2.5%. Indications are that farmers are switching to pulses to mitigate moisture stress.

Even if acreage is stable, production is very likely to be hit nevertheless. Agriculture experts are projecting a 5-6% drop in kharif output alone. Forecasts for the coming rabi (winter) crop, which is entirely dependent on irrigation, are worse given that most reservoirs across the country have not been well replenished by the monsoon. The Ministry of Agriculture has revised its foodgrain target for 2026-27 down to 373.93 million tonnes. Rice production is projected to fall 6.5% from last year’s level.

The peninsula is likely to bear the brunt of a poor monsoon. The drop in rice acreage has been heavily concentrated in the south, with Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh reporting massive sown-area deficits and bracing for a steep fall in grain production. Furthermore, the kharif crisis is poised to segue into the rabi season. In the first week of October, Central Water Commission data show that storage in 50 major reservoirs in the South is at less than 50% of capacity compared to 87.82% at this time last year.

Such is the seriousness of the situation that three peninsular states have decided not to wait until the Centre-mandated date of Oct. 31 to invoke emergency measures under the National Manual for Drought Management. Last week, Andhra Pradesh, reeling under a rainfall deficit of 43.4%, declared a drought in 21 of its 26 districts, with 283 mandals classified as severely hit and 105 moderately.

Karnataka, having had its second-worst monsoon in 70 years, has declared 217 out of its 240 taluks as drought-hit. Telangana has taken localised emergency water conservation measures, including a fiat to discourage desperate abstraction of groundwater.

Although Tamil Nadu, being more dependent on the northeast monsoon, is relatively better insulated, it has a carryover deficit of 13% from the summer rains. While IMD has forecast a normal northeast monsoon, its northern districts are tipped to have below-normal precipitation.

While the Union government has commenced consultations with the states, it has not treated drought mitigation with the requisite urgency. Signs of the gathering storm are already there.

Rural inflation is outpacing urban inflation, with the price of rice up 7.7% over last year. Sugar, pulses and oilseeds are ascending up the price spiral.

Lest it be reckoned that drought and water scarcity are issues for the states to handle, it would be useful to remember the dreaded drought of 2002, which the then government of AB Vajpayee tried to gloss over with the India Shining slogan. Angry voters do not quibble over jurisdictions.