The resumption of the Mansarovar Yatra last year and its continuance this year are among the key indicators of the gradual improvement of India-China relations. Both countries seem to be keen on initiating confidence-building measures. Since the Yatra involves the faith of devout Hindus, the willingness of the Chinese to facilitate it can be construed as a goodwill gesture. This year, the response has been such that the government had to issue an advisory asking enthusiastic Indians not to venture out without all the required travel documents, as dozens of them were reportedly stranded in Nepal as they did not have the required Chinese visa and entry permit.
The sacred trek to Mount Kailash and the Mansarovar Lake was suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic and in the wake of a series of clashes ranging from skirmishes to violent confrontations in high-altitude areas, notably the Galwan Valley, in which over a dozen Indian soldiers lost their lives. The Indian government retaliated with a series of economic measures that were meant to send a strong message to Beijing. However, this was followed by parleys, and the External Affairs Minister informed the Parliament that disengagement was achieved in full in Eastern Ladakh.
Once the border issues were under control, both countries began to focus on further de-escalation, which will pave the way for exploring other mutually beneficial aspects such as bilateral trade and investments. Though Opposition parties and some international relations experts felt that the Indian response was tepid and disappointing, the government, in its wisdom, opted for an approach involving pragmatic, non-military, tactical accommodation. Otherwise, escalation could have dragged the country into a larger conflict it could ill afford, given the relative strengths and weaknesses of both countries and the circumstances prevalent at that time.
Though the government has achieved a diplomatic thaw, it needs to do more in terms of diplomacy and military strategy to restore status quo ante and recover the lost ground – both literally and figuratively.
More recently, as part of its “cautious reset”, New Delhi eased the restrictions on Chinese investments in select sectors.
The indiscriminate and punitive tariffs regime unleashed by US President Donald Trump led to some rethinking and realignment as the two countries were forced to re-evaluate their previous geopolitical strategies. Both had more reasons to shake hands in the face of Trump’s transactional foreign policy, expedite the pursuit of strategic autonomy, and forge ahead towards fulfilment of their respective global ambitions. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed that peace and tranquillity along the border be maintained to hold continued dialogue to find “a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable resolution of the border question” but also for the calibrated reset in broader bilateral relations.
All eyes are on India’s chairship of BRICS this year and the hosting of the summit scheduled for the coming September.
Besides the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), BRICS is a major multilateral platform that could be utilised for strengthening bilateral relationships. The two countries could be aiming to hammer out a solution to the relatively “less contentious” sectors of the India-China border. Likewise, New Delhi would be keen on discussing ways to manage the trade imbalance. The challenge will be to take the bilateral ties from a tactical, limited engagement to a strategic, long-term sustainable relationship.