Peninsular India is passing through a weather paradox: a very severe cyclone is threatening Andhra Pradesh and Odisha while keeping the administration in Tamil Nadu busy managing heavy rains in several districts; at the same time, the governments of Telangana and Karnataka are in near panic mode, dealing with a severe drought.

With cyclone Arnab forecast to hit the coast on Wednesday (Oct. 28), about 5.7 lakh people in north Andhra are directly vulnerable to its fury. The government has ordered evacuation from low-lying areas in 14 districts, opened relief camps, closed educational institutions and cancelled trains. Odisha’s disaster-response teams are fully mobilised in the southern districts. Tamil Nadu, though outside the landfall zone, is dealing with the cyclone’s wider effects, including flooding, waterlogged roads and landslide risks in several parts of the state.

In stark contrast, Telangana and Karnataka, fresh from monsoon deficits of 17% and 35% respectively, are confronting a drought severe enough to trigger emergency measures as early as October. In Telangana, Chief Minister A Revanth Reddy has warned that water and electricity shortages could persist until July 2027. Some 358 of the state's mandals are drought-affected, with groundwater levels at a low already in 324 mandals and reservoir storage down to 170 thousand million cubic feet (TMC) against a total capacity of 470 TMC. Karnataka's situation is even worse. The 2026 southwest monsoon was the second worst since 1971. It has left 226 taluks drought-affected, with crop damage reported across 57.93 lakh hectares. Both state chief ministers have issued urgent appeals for early central assistance to deal with the drought.

Extreme weather events and sharp swings in rainfall patterns should not surprise administrations anymore. Last year, India had its fifth-driest January since 1901, followed by the warmest February in 124 years, segueing into extreme heat waves during the summer. Then followed a record-breaking monsoon that brought about extreme rain and flash floods. According to the Centre for Science and Environment, India recorded extreme weather events somewhere or other on 331 out of 334 days between January and November 2025. A 50-year study (1973–2023) by IPE Global found that more than 85% of Indian districts are exposed to extreme climate events, and 45% of them are experiencing quirky trends where flood-prone areas are becoming drought-prone, and vice versa. India's overall drought-prone area has expanded by 57% since 1997, and instances of sudden heavy rainfall have simultaneously risen by nearly 85% since 2012.

This reality calls for a change in the administrative approach to extreme weather events. The emphasis must move from reactive action to anticipatory policy. Disaster contingency planning must go beyond monitoring cyclone alert levels, distributing drinking water when supplies become critical or setting up temporary shelters. We must do more before the emergency than during. For this, state governments must collaborate with scientists to develop models to forecast reservoir and groundwater depletion, agricultural production and seasonal migration patterns. Since weather forecasting and data gathering have improved by leaps and bounds, it should be possible to quickly incorporate this approach into administrative planning.

Another major policy move is to lodge disaster preparedness and response as a function squarely within the municipal and district administration. This calls for training local staff, giving them access to up-to-date weather data, equipping them with equipment and allowing them to make independent decisions. Since extreme weather is a local reality, action cannot continue to be top-down.