The India Meteorological Department has cited the absence of large-scale favourable meteorological conditions as the reason for the slow and sluggish progress of the monsoon and the consequent potential rainfall deficit. And El Nino conditions, which are associated with sub-par rainfall, are going to make it worse. In fact, the World Meteorological Organisation and other climate agencies had forecast El Nino conditions and their strengthening in the coming months. Questions are being raised as to whether the government's response was timely and adequate. Indications are that the government could have done more, but it reportedly expedited action only after the southwest monsoon began to stall.
The rainfall deficit could not have come at a more inopportune time. Already, the US-Iran conflict had disrupted the global economy, and even after the signing of the peace deal, it will take months for the world to return to pre-war conditions. Indian farmers were beginning to feel the heat of supply blockages and the pinch of price volatility. Low rainfall will further adversely impact agricultural output. Fears are that its debilitating effects may not be limited to the Kharif season, which coincides with the monsoon period, but may seep into the Rabi season in the winter. The cascading impact will be felt on agriculture-related, allied sectors such as animal husbandry, which typically augment farm income and often act as a buffer.
The Central government has swung into action, albeit a bit delayed, according to critics. Over 150 districts are identified to be prone to rainfall that is either erratic or low and uneven. The Centre and state governments are busy with contingency plans. Since India had already faced El Nino conditions a few times in the past, there will be contingency plan templates, and officials must resist the temptation to recycle them with minor tweaks, as the present “super” El Nino is likely to be more devastating than some of the previous ones, which were relatively moderate.
To cope with El Nino conditions, crop changes must be promoted, which is easier said than done. Identifying alternative crops is less difficult than persuading farmers to quickly go for alternative crops or use drought-tolerant, climate-resilient seeds and making them available at short notice. Promoting dryland agriculture, for instance, cannot happen overnight. Herein comes the importance of a long-term strategy, and a government with vision and foresight would have inbuilt systems and processes for such eventualities. The Central government’s claims of moving forward with “complete preparedness” and reassurances that farmers need not have any major concerns will be more credible if they are backed by action on the ground and visible to farmers.
The ruling party should be more concerned about the political fallout as well. For instance, several districts of Uttar Pradesh, which will be going to the polls, are likely to experience a severe impact. The release of the PM-KISAN instalment to nearly 10 crore farmer families by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, accompanied by a publicity blitzkrieg, or the supply of free foodgrains under PMGKAY to over 80 crore people, may fall short given the magnitude of the problem. The ruling party, meanwhile, is busy strengthening its position in Parliament, and the country is possibly hurtling towards an impending economic crisis that could have serious political ramifications.