Several regional parties in the Opposition have been thrown into turmoil due to defections since the last round of Assembly elections in May. That this is happening almost simultaneously across parties and states, and MPs rather than MLAs seem to be the focus of defections, indicates that this is a coordinated exercise quite different from Operation Lotus, the BJP’s familiar power grab at the state level. Union ministers are openly escorting the turncoats over the line, making it obvious that this is a manoeuvre to beef up the ruling alliance's numbers in Parliament.
In West Bengal, just days after 64 out of the Trinamool Congress’s 80 elected MLAs broke away to sit as a separate bloc in the state Assembly, 20 out of the party’s 28 MPs flew the coop as well. After consultations with Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla and Union minister Bhupendra Yadav, they are seeking to dodge the anti-defection law by merging with a little-known letterhead party called the Nationalist Citizen Party of India. They have expressed a clear intent to support the ruling NDA in the Lok Sabha. Concurrently, two of TMC’s Rajya Sabha MPs have resigned from their positions.
In Maharashtra, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) is facing a vertical split after 6 out of its 9 Lok Sabha MPs skipped a crucial parliamentary party meeting, defying a party whip. They are seeking separate seating in Parliament with the intent of merging with the Shiv Sena faction led by Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde once the pre-defection rites of passage are fulfilled. It’s apparent that this is a move to further disembowel the Shiv Sena, with Union Home Minister Amit Shah himself orchestrating what has been codenamed Operation Tiger.
In Uttar Pradesh, senior BJP leaders are drumming up reports that at least 27 Lok Sabha MPs are poised to defect from the Samajwadi Party soon. The regional party’s leadership has dismissed the reports and said its flock is secure.
The urgency of these machinations indicates that the BJP is anxious to cobble together a two-thirds majority for its National Democratic Alliance before the monsoon session of Parliament starts next month. The ruling party is hoping to pass two major Constitution amendment bills, one on delimitation and the other on simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly polls countrywide, both of which require a two-thirds majority.
In the Lok Sabha, that mark is 360 votes in a House of 540, and the NDA with 293 MPs is currently well short of it. The haul of 20 Trinamool and 6 Shiv Sena (UBT) will not be sufficient; therefore, a raid on the SP is on the cards. In the Rajya Sabha of 245 MPs, the NDA would need 164 to reach the two-thirds mark. Its own tally of 152 has been bolstered by the recent acquisition of the Aam Aadmi Party’s 7 MPs. It’s still touch and go, which explains the current overtures to the Trinamool’s Rajya Sabha MPs.These are rank predatory practices to inveigle into the statute a delimitation bill that was summarily rejected by Parliament as recently as two months ago. It is also a corruption of the electoral verdict of 2024 by which the people of this country emphatically expressed their desire for a strong Opposition. If these designs do come to pass, the very idea of an Opposition will have been relegated to the past.