The Andhra Pradesh government’s proposed move to incentivise couples opting for larger families may or may not address the decline in population growth, but it is most likely to have unintended consequences for the poor families that take the bait. Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu’s announcement regarding cash incentives ranging from Rs 25,000 to Rs 40,000 to couples for choosing to have more than one child is unlikely to lure well-off couples. Even bigger incentives have failed to reverse the clock in other countries.
From a population studies perspective, larger families in developing countries, in general, and among economically disadvantaged families in particular, cause undue financial strain and affect the family’s standard of living, and also have adverse repercussions on child development. More importantly, adequate parental attention to children may be compromised.
Given the cost of education, especially private education that is being sought after even by aspirational families with limited income, providing "good" education to all children equally may not be possible, and in such a case, girl children could be discriminated against. Secondly, cash incentives are considered to be coercive and anti-women as they will worsen the already weak reproductive rights and autonomy of many women trapped in patriarchal settings.
However, it is true that fertility rates have declined in the relatively better-governed and developed states in South India. For instance, Andhra Pradesh’s total fertility rate is hovering around 1.5, while the national average is 2.1. This trend is likely to continue, and in a couple of decades, about 23% of the state’s population would be above 60 years. But a better solution would be implementing holistic, family-centric policies that empower couples to voluntarily opt for more than one child.
Naidu has his reasons for limiting his arguments to the economic implications of the declining fertility rate and sweeping under the carpet the political aspect. It is obvious that the spectre of delimitation hangs over the southern states, including Andhra Pradesh, and a determined BJP is biding its time for an opportune moment to railroad its controversial bill through Parliament.
Being a key political ally of the BJP and part of the NDA government at the Centre, the TDP has had hardly any choice but to fall in line in supporting the so-called Women’s Reservation Bill, which was a ruse for getting approval for the larger delimitation bill. Besides extending support to the BJP by reposing complete trust and faith in assurances given by Modi and Shah that injustice would not be done to southern and smaller states, Naidu had criticised the Congress-led Opposition for blocking it.
Naidu has veered away from federalism. Ironically, the Telugu Desam Party, founded by actor-turned-politician NT Rama Rao, has its origins in opposing a strong Centre and championing the rights of states, regional autonomy, and the pride and self-respect of Telugu people. Even Naidu was once seen as a strong proponent of federalism when he had the clout of a kingmaker in a fragmented, relatively weaker United Front coalition (1996-98) at the Centre. However, this time around, he seems to have lost his political will and assertion in the Modi-Shah dispensation, as he pragmatically chose to use his limited and constrained influence to get financial largesse from the Centre. It might at best delay the political kiss of death, which no regional party manages to escape.