The Union Cabinet has approved a revised framework for the Agnipath scheme, which opens up avenues for permanent enrolment of Agniveers into the defence forces. The decision was taken in the wake of the first batch of 18,300 Agniveers completing their initial four-year tenure next month. As per the previous plan, the top 25% will be offered regular permanent employment immediately. The remaining 75% were originally to be discharged from service with a severance package, but under the revised plan they can avail of an additional two years of engagement, with the possibility of being offered permanent enrolment as regular soldiers. In effect, all of them will have a shot at joining the forces as regular soldiers.

Thus, the predominantly short-term contractual model has been shelved for now in favour of a wider retention system that is supposed to reward merit and foster healthy competition. The government is now claiming that the scheme was conceived as a work in progress with room for modification. In fact, Chief of Defence Staff General NS Raja Subramani said the scheme was revamped based on positive feedback regarding the impressive performance of the first batch. Of course, the Congress party, especially Rahul Gandhi, and other critics had their “I told you so” moment and did not miss the opportunity to gloat over the government’s discomfiture at having to eat its words.

The cabinet decision is yet another telling example of the government acting hastily and often without adequate consultation and deliberation. In the past, this was portrayed as fast and bold decision-making by a strong government and presented as “bold decisions, futuristic reforms and transformative governance”. Many gullible people fell for these inflated and grandiose claims. But when the “masterstroke” decisions fell apart at the seams, they exposed the perils of decision-making in a centralised, top-down system where power is concentrated in two leaders and a small coterie of bureaucrats. In recent times, due to the changing political climate and vociferous demands for explanation and accountability, the BJP is increasingly finding it difficult to present face-saving policy reversals as a stroke of genius, or manage the fallout without political loss of face.

Back in 2022, the government introduced Agnipath as an “attractive” recruitment scheme and persuasively argued the need to create “a younger, fitter, technologically equipped and future-ready military”. There was also some merit in the government’s justification regarding the urgency to reduce the debilitating pension burden. Under the original scheme, Agniveers exit the force without pension and gratuity benefits, resulting in substantial savings.

But the government faced stiff resistance from the youth as violent protests rocked several traditional catchment states, including Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Bihar. Yet the government managed to brazen it out. Now, with the Gen Z and youth protests and the resurgent INDIA bloc hitting the streets, the political climate has changed significantly in recent months for the BJP and the NDA government. With elections due in Uttar Pradesh and other states, the BJP can ill afford to send thousands of retired and therefore unemployed Agniveers to the villages and towns of the poll-bound states. It is therefore plausible that, besides the imperative of managing emerging volatility, preserving political capital and electoral calculations could well have influenced the policy revamp.