They’re neither Never Trumpers nor independents, but they’re increasingly meh on MAGA.
We often talk about Republicans as members of two easy-to-understand factions: MAGA die-hards and Never Trumpers. But the most electorally critical slice of the Republican electorate, about half of all Republicans today, generally falls into neither camp. This slice is neither Republicans in exile who voted for Kamala Harris nor is it the Trumpist faithful.
Let’s call these voters “normie” Republicans. It’s with this group that the GOP’s most immediate political challenge really lies.
As a pollster who studies voters and the shifting coalitions of our two major political parties, I’m frequently asked how various actions taken by President Trump, such as his decision to attack Iran, will resonate with his core supporters. As I wrote a few weeks ago, polls have shown that Trump’s MAGA base is sticking with him.
But what about the rest of the party? The normies are fairly supportive of Trump’s presidency, even if they’re not in lockstep with him on every issue. Most report watching Fox News, and most hold deeply unfavourable views of the Democratic Party and its most prominent voices. They are, by and large, voters who think of themselves as conservative and Republican — firmly so.
They don’t, however, think of themselves first and foremost as supporters of Trump, and they have displayed increasing disaffection with the direction of the country under his leadership. They generally think his combative posts on Truth Social are harmful to the Republican cause. Most of them don’t consider themselves part of the MAGA movement.
The flagging enthusiasm of these normies should be a powerful alarm bell for Republican candidates seeking to win the 2026 elections.
To be clear, Trump remains a popular figure among Republican voters, with 86% holding a favourable view of him in my polling, not far off from the 90% who held a favourable view of him a year ago. If you want to understand why Republican lawmakers have thus far been reluctant to cross the president, look no further than those numbers.
But under the surface, there are signs that for some Republicans, the thrill is gone. Since last year, the percentage of Republicans who felt very favourably toward the president has fallen by 10 points. Only 44% of Republicans strongly approve of his handling of the economy.
As these trends have unfolded, the number of Republicans who say they think of themselves more as supporters of the party than of Trump has risen substantially.
The good news for Republican candidates is that 68% of these party-first Republicans say they’re extremely likely to vote, comparable to the 71% of Trump-firsters who say the same. And they’re not exactly defecting to vote for the Democrats; 91% of party-first Republicans expect to vote for a Republican in the midterms.
But when my polls ask how motivated they are to vote, the gap widens enormously. While 62% of Trump-first Republicans describe themselves as extremely motivated, less than half — 49% — of those party-first Republicans say the same.
This matters because Democrats are essentially telling pollsters they will walk across hot coals to get to the polls. Fox News’s most recent poll finds that more Democrats than Republicans are “extremely” motivated to vote. In my own polling, 82% of Democrats say it is “extremely important” to win the midterms and stop Trump from carrying out his agenda — while only 57% of Republicans say that it is similarly important for their party to win. That number falls to 47% among party-first Republicans.
It’s conceivable that as the midterms approach, the normies come home to Trump. And winning back some of the independents who are giving Trump horrible ratings on his handling of the economy and Iran would be a much-needed boost to Republican candidates’ fortunes. Failing that, what will Trump and Republicans’ strategy likely be to increase Republican voter turnout? Go negative, negative, negative. The one thing that unites Trump-firsters with the rest of the party is disdain for the Democrats.
Democratic voters clearly feel that the stakes are sky-high in this election. Trump’s most loyal supporters do, too. Many normie Republicans aren’t so sure. If they decide to stay home in November, it will probably spell electoral disaster for the GOP.
The New York Times