CHENNAI: After weeks of scorching days and sweaty nights, there could finally be some good news for Tamil Nadu.
While India has recorded its hottest August in 125 years amid a significant rainfall deficit, meteorologists expect the evolving weather conditions to bring a stronger northeast monsoon rainfall to the State later this year.
India recorded its hottest August since 1901, with the country’s mean temperature reaching 28.01 degrees Celsius, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The temperature was 0.67 degrees Celsius above the long period average of 27.34 degrees Celsius. The previous record was set in August 2023, when India’s mean temperature stood at 28 degrees Celsius.
The record-breaking heat came as the country experienced a rainfall deficit during August. India received 16% below normal rainfall during the month, resulting in dry conditions and unusually high temperatures across several parts of the country.
Scientist VR Durai, director, Area Cyclone Warning Centre, India Meteorological Centre, Chennai, told DT Next that the hot and dry conditions experienced across much of the country were linked to the prevailing large-scale weather pattern.
“Some parts of Odisha, Maharashtra and a few northern States received good rainfall. However, overall, several parts of the country experienced dry and hot weather conditions,” he added.
Tamil Nadu, too, is likely to continue facing hot and humid weather during the first half of September.
“We may continue to experience relatively dry and hot weather conditions until around September 15 but the State gets a small spell of rain here and there,” he stated. “The same evolving climate conditions could eventually turn favourable for TN when the northeast monsoon sets in.”
El Nino, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with changes in ocean temperatures, winds, atmospheric pressure and global rainfall patterns, is expected to remain an important factor influencing weather conditions in the coming months.
According to Durai, the prevailing El Nino conditions are expected to strengthen further, which could push average temperatures higher.
“After September 15, the El Nino conditions are expected to become stronger and may lead to a further increase in temperatures by 2 degree Celsius to above normal. However, there is no need for concern about the prolonged heat alone, as the larger weather pattern could also favour increased rainfall during the northeast monsoon,” he pointed out.
Tamil Nadu receives a major share of its annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon, which generally begins in October and continues until December. The season is particularly crucial for the State as it replenishes reservoirs, groundwater and other water bodies.
Durai opined: “We’re expecting good rainfall during the northeast monsoon due to the very strong super El Nino condition in Tamil Nadu.”
For now, residents will have to endure another fortnight of heat and humidity. But after August entered the record books as India’s hottest since 1901, the prospect of a wetter Northeast monsoon could offer much needed relief to Tamil Nadu.