CHENNAI: Coastal districts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during August, while the Western Ghats districts may experience below-normal rainfall as moderate El Niño conditions continue to strengthen over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, according to the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) monthly and seasonal climate outlook.
The outlook comes even as Tamil Nadu and Puducherry continue to record a rainfall deficit during the ongoing southwest monsoon. Between June 1 and August 1, the region received 100.5 mm of rainfall against the normal 122.7 mm, registering a 18% deficit, according to IMD data.
The IMD said rainfall activity across Tamil Nadu and Puducherry would vary across regions during August. North Coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, as well as South Coastal Tamil Nadu, are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. North Interior Tamil Nadu and South Interior Tamil Nadu are likely to record normal rainfall, while the Western Ghats districts are forecast to receive below-normal rainfall.
The weather office said maximum temperatures during August are likely to remain near normal to slightly above normal across most parts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. However, areas experiencing frequent rainfall may record temperatures close to normal.
Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain normal to above normal over most parts of the State and Puducherry, with warm and humid nights likely at many places.
For the second half of the southwest monsoon season, covering August and September, the IMD said the rainfall pattern over Tamil Nadu is expected to remain similar to the August outlook.
While cumulative rainfall across India is projected to be below normal during the period, eastern parts of Tamil Nadu are expected to benefit from favourable atmospheric conditions. In contrast, the Western Ghats region is likely to witness prolonged subdued rainfall.
The IMD said moderate El Niño conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to strengthen further during the remainder of the southwest monsoon season. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are likely to persist through August, although some international climate models indicate the possible development of a positive IOD during September, which could partly offset the influence of El Niño over Peninsular India.