CHENNAI: Even as hectic efforts are going on to bring on board the Left parties, CPM and CPI, and VCK, who together have six seats, to support the unexpected DMK-AIADMK coalition that is trying to form the next government in Tamil Nadu, sources told DT Next that the comrades are worried about the impact such a move would have on its future prospects in neighbouring Kerala, the last remaining State where they are still a major political force.
And if the Left are for supporting the TVK to form a government, it would give a perfect cover for VCK leader Thol Thirumavalavan to follow suit.
First, the basic coalition math. These three parties have two MLAs-elect each, together six. Though this is a meagre number in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly, working out to only 2.5% per cent, six is the exact same number that TVK-Congress combine require to reach the simple majority number of 118.
On the other hand, the widely rumoured DMK-AIADMK combine, which also has the support of the IUML (two MLAs-elect), has the theoretical number of 108. Even if the PMK (4 MLAs-elect), and lone winning candidates of DMDK and AMMK back the front, it would only add up to 116 – still two short of majority. This scarcity has elevated the status of the two Left parties and VCK as that of ‘influential minority’.
It thus is not surprising that the DMK has sent its veteran leader I Periyasamy as its emissary to hold talks with the leaders of the CPM and CPI, while TVK leader C Joseph Vijay’s team is also reaching out to them seeking support.
However, it is not a straightforward decision that the CPM and CPI can take. In Kerala, which went to election along with Tamil Nadu, the CPM-led LDF lost power after a decade and was reduced to 38 seats in the 140-member Assembly.
Sources told DT Next that many in the two Left parties are worried that backing the opportunistic move by DMK and AIADMK might not only tarnish their reputation, it may also lead to serious political repercussions in Kerala, as the Congress-led UDF and the BJP would leave no stone unturned to paint it as politically immoral and acting against the mandate of the people.
While such considerations are irrelevant for DMK and AIADMK, both of which being State parties, the Left cannot afford it, as Kerala is the only State where they have political space and voice.
Meanwhile, if the Left are open to breaking away from the DMK-led alliance and backing the TVK-led coalition in Tamil Nadu, whether by joining the government or from the outside, it would give adequate cover for the VCK to follow suit. Its leader Thol Thirumavalavan has been maintaining that the party would take a final decision in coordination with the Left partners.
RACE LEADER:
TVK – 107 (minus Vijay’s second seat)
Congress – 5
Subtotal: 112
CHALLENGERS:
DMK – 59
AIADMK – 47
IUML 2
Subtotal: 108
PARTIES THAT HOLD THE CARDS
PMK – 4
CPM – 2
CPI – 2
VCK – 2
DMDK – 1
AMMK – 1
NONE’S CHOICE:
BJP – 1