THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Kerala's political fate will be decided on Monday as counting of votes for the April 9 Assembly elections begins, bringing to a close an intense and high-stakes contest among the ruling LDF, the opposition UDF, and the BJP-led NDA.
The results are crucial for all three fronts as they seek to strengthen their position in the state’s evolving political landscape.
Kerala has a total of 2,71,42,952 voters, of whom 79.63 per cent cast their votes across 140 Assembly constituencies on April 9.
A total of 883 candidates contested the election for 140 seats in the state.
The office of the chief electoral officer said that all preparations for counting have been completed.
There are 140 counting centres across 43 locations, with the process scheduled to begin at 8 am on Monday.
Officials said that 15,464 personnel have been deployed for the exercise, comprising 140 returning officers, 1,340 additional returning officers, 4,208 micro observers, 4,208 counting supervisors, and 5,563 counting assistants.
As part of the procedure, the strong rooms where Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) and VVPAT units are stored will be opened first in the presence of Election Commission observers, security personnel, and representatives of candidates.
Postal ballots which account for 1.36 per cent of the total votes polled will be counted first.
Special counting tables have been arranged for postal ballots, with each table handling up to 500 votes under the supervision of an assistant returning officer.
Votes polled in EVMs from a maximum of 14 polling stations will be counted in each round, and a broad picture of the election outcome is expected by the afternoon.
Election Commission officials said VVPAT slips will be counted in cases where discrepancies arise between the number of votes recorded at a booth and the figures stored in the EVMs.
Security arrangements have been put in place, with 25 companies of central forces deployed alongside state police personnel to guard the counting centres.
Police have also enhanced surveillance across the state to prevent any post-election violence, officials said.
With most exit polls predicting a close contest but giving an edge to the UDF, political parties and leaders will be closely watching the results.
For the Congress-led UDF, which has remained out of power since 2016, the election is being viewed as a do-or-die battle.
Buoyed by its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Assembly bypolls, and local body elections, the Congress-led front is optimistic, and discussions over a possible chief ministerial candidate have already surfaced within the party.
The UDF aims for a significant improvement from the 41 seats it won in the 2021 Assembly election, with some exit polls projecting 80–90 seats.
The ruling LDF, however, citing forecasts of a close contest, remains hopeful of retaining power for a third consecutive term.
Though matching its 2021 tally of 99 seats appears unlikely, the front expects to secure around 75–80 seats, claiming that the government’s development initiatives will translate into votes.
A defeat for the LDF would also mark the first time since the 1960s that Left parties are not in power in any Indian state.
The BJP-led NDA, although not in contention to form the government, views the election as crucial to expanding its footprint in Kerala after failing to win any seats in 2021.
The alliance is also closely watching its vote share, targeting more than 20 per cent this time.
The NDA had secured a 12.51 per cent vote share in the 2021 Assembly election, which rose to 19.23 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
However, its vote share dropped to around 15 per cent in the 2025 local body elections, with the BJP securing 14.76 per cent.
After winning the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation in the local body polls and tying up with the Twenty20 party, the NDA expects gains in the state capital district and parts of central Kerala.
Observers will also closely track the extent of Christian support garnered by the NDA after fielding several Christian candidates in central Kerala, as well as the electoral impact of the FCRA Amendment Bill, which was a major campaign issue during the election.