CHENNAI: Despite rapid expansion, renewable energy is unlikely to overtake fossil fuels in the global energy mix before the mid-2050s under current growth trends, according to a new study by the Indian Institute of Technology Madras (IIT-M), offering a sobering assessment of the world's net-zero ambitions.
Published in a peer-reviewed engineering journal, the study finds that renewables would cross the 50 per cent threshold, the point at which they surpass fossil fuels, only between 2047 and 2053 if current annual growth of about 5.5 per cent persists. This timeline overshoots the widely accepted 2050 net-zero target.
Only under accelerated scenarios, where renewable capacity expands at nearly double the recent pace, could the crossover occur earlier, around 2035 to 2037, the researchers said.
"The transition to renewables is not just an environmental imperative; it is an economic and geopolitical one. The technological pathways exist, but the world is not investing at the required scale. The gap between ambition and action remains wide," said Professor Jitendra S Sangwai of IIT-M.
Co-author Rajat Dehury noted that the analysis, based on a decade of global energy data, underscores the urgency of policy and investment shifts. "Without a sharp acceleration in infrastructure and financing, major climate targets will remain out of reach," he said.
The study highlights that, while global renewable capacity has increased sharply, expanding by 128 per cent between 2014 and 2023, it still accounts for only 14.56 per cent of total primary energy consumption. Fossil fuels continue to dominate, supplying over 80 per cent of global energy and contributing the bulk of carbon emissions.
For India, the findings highlight a dual challenge. As a major emitter in absolute terms but with low per-capita emissions, the country must expand energy access and sustain growth while transitioning to cleaner sources. Its target of 485 GW renewable capacity by 2030 is seen as critical to both domestic and global climate goals.
The researchers emphasise that renewables alone will not deliver net-zero. A broader strategy, including carbon capture technologies, advanced storage systems, efficiency gains and grid modernisation, will be essential to bridge the gap.
WHAT STUDY SAYS
Global renewable capacity has risen sharply by 128% between 2014 and 2023
However, it accounts for only 14.56% of total primary energy consumption
Current annual growth is only 5.5%
Fossil fuels continue to dominate, fulfilling over 80% of global energy