India’s seafood industry is navigating a major reset in its trade relationship with the United States. As of late February 2026, the tariff landscape for Indian seafood — particularly shrimp — entering the US remains in flux after a US Supreme Court ruling.
Following the court’s February 20, 2026, decision striking down President Donald Trump’s earlier Reciprocal Tariffs, which had ranged from about 25% to 50% for India, the administration pivoted to a new authority. A 10% temporary import surcharge was imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. It took effect on February 24, 2026, for 150 days, though Trump has signalled a possible increase to 15%.
In the short run (three to six months), exporters are expected to move shipments held in customs-bonded warehouses into the US market. A surge in orders as pricing becomes competitive again — about $6.25 a pound for wholesale shrimp — is also likely. In the longer run (one year or more), India is expected to shift from raw frozen products to value-added items such as breaded or butterflied shrimp. Lower tariffs make these higher-margin products more viable, potentially raising export value even if volumes remain steady.
India’s competitive edge has been restored, but the field remains crowded. Ecuador remains a major rival because of near-shoring advantages — an eight-day shipping route compared with India’s 28 days — and lower logistics costs. Vietnam and Indonesia now face tariffs of roughly 49% and 24%, respectively. The immediate additional tariff has dropped to about 10% (plus standard anti-dumping and countervailing duties), though policy uncertainty remains as the administration considers raising it again.
There is concern that exporters might rush back to the US and neglect gains in other markets. Yet diversification is unlikely to be abandoned for three reasons. First, finalised in January 2026, the India–EU FTA grants zero-duty access to the European market. This is a massive counterweight to the US market. Second, China and Vietnam have emerged as major hubs for Indian seafood, with Vietnam’s imports of Indian shrimp doubling in 2025. Third, the tariff spike in 2025 taught Indian businesses that over-reliance on a single geopolitical partner is risky.
The tariff relief is therefore likely to trigger rebalancing rather than a full shift back to the US. The American market will remain important, but the era of relying on one destination may be ending. The India–EU Free Trade Agreement, signed on January 27, 2026, has opened a major opportunity for exporters.
The divergence in tariff regimes fundamentally reshapes where exporters can maximise returns:
New tariff rates: In the US, tariffs fell from approximately 58% to 10–15%. Conversely, the EU’s new FTA slashed tariffs from 4.2–7.5% down to zero.
Duty savings: This reduction delivers relief for US-bound exports, though a notable burden remains. The EU FTA eliminates duties entirely, granting unfettered access.
Competitive standing: In the US, India’s position restores competitiveness against Indonesia and Vietnam. In the EU, India achieves parity with Ecuador and stands ahead of non-FTA nations.
Market focus: The US continues to favour high-volume commodities like raw frozen shrimp. The EU market emphasises high-value, premium, and value-added seafood.
The US has recently used tariffs as a geopolitical tool, linking them to India’s Russian oil purchases. In contrast, the EU FTA provides a legally binding framework offering 10 years of stability. If US-India relations sour in 2027, exporters now have a zero-duty highway into Europe’s €53 billion seafood market. This includes squid, cuttlefish, and octopus—products that have historically struggled in the US.
While the EU offers 0% duty, it maintains stricter entry requirements. The EU requires 50% sampling of Indian consignments and strict "Farm-to-Fork" traceability. To truly benefit, Indian farmers must adopt ASC (Aquaculture Stewardship Council) certifications. The US remains more lenient, making it an easier market for smaller, less-organised exporters.
In the short run, India will see a US rebound as exporters clear inventory to capitalize on new rates. In the long run, a structural shift toward the EU will occur. Large Indian processors are already investing in European-spec plants for ready-to-eat meals, fetching $10–$12/kg in Brussels versus $6–$8/kg for raw shrimp in New York. The US deal saves the industry from a crisis, but the EU deal provides the blueprint for India to become a global seafood superpower.
M Krishnan is a former Principal Scientist & Head, ICAR-Central Institute of Fisheries Education, Mumbai; Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan is an Affiliate Faculty Member, Applied Economics, Boston College, USA