The recent uprising in Iran was the first time the theocracy faced nationwide protests after losing a war.
But by massacring thousands of Iranians in January, the ruling elite showed that military defeat has not led to acquiescence. With a large American force gathering in the region, the stark reality is that the regime appears as strong today — and just as defiant — as it was before the recent convulsions.
In the aftermath of the 12-day war with the US and Israel in June, which devastated Iran’s nuclear facilities and left scores of top military officials and scientists dead, the Islamic Republic’s ruling elite was thrown into disarray. Thus, when the uprising began in late December over the collapse of the currency, the regime initially adopted a conciliatory approach.
But Iran’s rulers seemed to forget the dynamics of the 1979 revolution that brought them to power, when demonstrations grew once the masses realised that Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi was unwilling to slaughter his own people.
For protesters, it was both safe and validating to join the opposition. And so the protests in January intensified and spread across the country.
The regime eventually rallied around the contempt for the protests expressed by the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.
On Jan. 5, the cleric Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, the hardline head of the judiciary, declared there would be no tolerance toward rioters and no leniency.
Elite groups that control Iran’s military and economy held together, and security forces attacked. According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, 7,008 people had been killed and 53,344 arrested as of Feb. 13. These numbers may rise as more deaths are counted and more demonstrators are tracked down.
Even now, the regime is expanding its target list, arresting previously tolerated members of the Reformist Front political faction, including its head, Azar Mansouri, though she has since been released. The judiciary accused them of organising activities aimed at disrupting the political and social situation.
The Trump administration most likely assumed that its success in the 12-day war, combined with the scale of the uprising, would give it leverage in negotiations with Tehran now underway.
Always inclined toward displays of power, the White House has deployed a formidable armada to the region and said it would consider military action if talks fail.
Two recent rounds of talks, one in Oman and one in Geneva, suggest Tehran is not easily intimidated.
The second round ended Tuesday with both sides citing undefined progress. Iran reportedly said it would present more detailed proposals within two weeks.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio had initially insisted the talks include Iran’s nuclear programme, ballistic missiles, support for militant groups and the treatment of its own people.
That does not appear to have happened. In proximity talks mediated by Oman, Tehran limited discussions to the nuclear issue and maintained its position that it has the right to enrich uranium at home. For emphasis, Iran said it conducted naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, briefly closing the key waterway.
The clerical regime has little desire for another confrontation with Donald Trump. Like many international actors, Iran’s leaders are still trying to gauge him. The cautious Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, suggested that if nuclear talks succeed, they could expand into other areas later. Tehran appears to be preserving its red lines while offering Trump a path to avoid war.
What seems clear, however, is that the regime no longer sees being bombed by the US or Israel as an existential threat. This is unlikely to change even if Khamenei dies.
The Islamic Republic is not a personalised dictatorship but an ideological system with a multilayered elite that benefits from it. Americans at the talks may see Iranians as supplicants; Khamenei and his circle see themselves as survivors.
That mindset could eventually prove to be their downfall. Theocracy may have regained control of Iran’s streets, but the causes of popular discontent remain: economic decline, corruption, class divisions and ecological problems that contribute to persistent water shortages. At some point, another uprising is likely.
Millions of Iranians cannot be suppressed indefinitely.
For now, however, it must be acknowledged that the life span of the Islamic Republic appears to have been extended by its recent crackdown. The regime has revived the sense of fear — the terrifying awe on which its authority depends.
The New York Times