With Pakistan declaring an “open war” against its neighbour, Afghanistan, things are likely to take a turn for the worse. The situation may deteriorate further, so much so that some anxious big powers are trying to defuse the situation. Russia has asked both nations to stop all cross-border military actions forthwith and de-escalate tensions through dialogue.
Deeply concerned, China has been working behind the scenes towards the abatement of hostilities. The UN Secretary General and other United Nations officials have called for a dialogue, while Iran has offered its good offices to help facilitate dialogue to resolve the ongoing conflict.
Pakistan finds itself in an awkward situation where it has to make allegations against Taliban-ruled Afghanistan just as India did against it regarding harbouring “terrorists” and allowing its territory to be used to target other nations.
Taliban rulers, who have broken the ice and elicited a good response from India to their friendship overtures, deny Pakistani allegations of cross-border militancy, saying it has nothing to do with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) aka Pakistani Taliban, which it asserted was its neighbour’s internal issue. Media and even the UN Monitoring Reports point to the contrary.
Pakistan is right, and there is mounting evidence of TTP fighters being present in Afghanistan as the regime has fragmented control of the war-ravaged nation. Besides TTP, ISIS-Khorasan and remnants of Al-Qaeda are said to be operating in Afghanistan, contrary to Kabul’s claims.
Pakistan needs to weigh the pros and cons of waging war against Afghanistan at this juncture. Though Pakistan is militarily better placed to mount attacks, a protracted conflict could bleed the country, whose economy is in bad shape and cannot afford any further deterioration due to the bleeding of resources. It is not clear if the political establishment, which is itself in a quandary, is united in its support of prolonged conflict. Lastly, garnering support to fight another predominantly Muslim country ruled by an Islamic organisation is not going to be easy.
Likewise, Afghanistan has its share of chinks in the armour. Continued skirmishes and, worse, a serious war will have devastating consequences. Taliban, which was able to resist the might of the US and its allies through guerrilla-type warfare, can wage a war of attrition, but it will be at a huge cost in terms of disrupted trade, humanitarian crisis and squandering its scarce resources in diplomatic manoeuvres with nations like Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
After a long time, the Modi government has a foreign policy issue on which it can take an unequivocal stand. India, though, will be closely watching the developments with mixed feelings, has already made it clear where its sympathies lie as its MEA spokesperson had strongly condemned Pakistan’s airstrikes on Afghan territory, focusing in particular on civilian casualties, including women and children and emphasising that it is happening during the holy month of Ramadan.
Reiterating its support for Afghanistan’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence, New Delhi took a swipe at yet another attempt by Pakistan to externalise its internal failures. Well played, it must be said for now.
Like several other conflicts elsewhere, the US is directly and indirectly responsible for the mess in the region. This crisis possibly provides another opportunity to Donald Trump to claim, albeit without verifiable evidence, to be a saviour and boast of ending the conflict.