A series of developments is leading to disparaging inferences, or even conclusions, that tend to put a question mark on India’s strategic autonomy in foreign policy. And some trenchant and hardline critics are going to the extent of arguing that the erosion is not limited to autonomy but also extends even to sovereignty.
Firstly, the Indian government’s dilly-dallying with regard to its response, or the lack of it, to the killing of the head of the Iranian state in contravention of international law.
Then it was quickly followed by silence over the torpedoing of a warship, which had just participated in a multinational fleet review exercise hosted by India. Now comes the news that the US has granted a waiver to India to purchase Russian oil in the wake of the Strait of Hormuz being closed for oil tankers.
Words like granting and permission are mostly used in unequal power equations. They connote a superior authority bestowing something on a weaker, subordinate entity. A self-respecting, sovereign country and an emerging nation with superpower aspirations like India cannot afford to allow such an unequal relationship with the US or a humiliating narrative about it.
The issue of buying Russian oil by India had become a major issue with the Trump administration, despite the hitherto fabled personal equation Modi had with Trump.
In an obvious arm-twisting move, the US imposed a punitive 25% tariff for buying Russian oil. Subsequently, the US used a trade deal to make India buy from the US and later Venezuela instead of Russia.
The US was insistent on reducing India’s dependence on Russia for its energy needs. Every time the US and Trump openly claimed such diktats, India would deny, somewhat unconvincingly, that its energy-related decisions were being taken under pressure from the US. India maintained that such decisions were always taken keeping in mind the national interest.
Having said that, the 30-day waiver will definitely alleviate India’s worries relating to the availability of crude.
Given the fact that India has limited energy stocks and there is no credible or predictable end date for the ongoing conflict in West Asia, it will help build stocks and bump up energy security.
Secondly, though Russian oil is cheaper, it did not help the country in the past, as private refiners were reselling it to other countries for a profit. This time around, the prices may go up and reduce profit margins if China also bids for a slice of the pie.
It is heartening to note that the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG) has asked oil refining companies to prioritise the needs of domestic consumers of LPG instead of petrochemical product companies. Likewise, the government must direct the oil companies to prioritise domestic fuel availability and not exports.
In a sense, the US had to grudgingly allow India to buy Russian oil “already stranded at sea” and justified it on the grounds that it would enable a continuous flow of oil into global markets, and moreover, it would not give Russia substantial financial benefit, which the US had alleged was fueling the war against Ukraine.
Despite its present compulsions, America continues to remind India and the world that it is calling the shots. If India does not assert itself emphatically, it will risk diluting its strategic autonomy.