Serge Schmemann
Back when the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was in its early stages, the cry from the West was to supply Ukraine with enough artillery shells and tanks to blunt the Russian onslaught. Now, well into the war’s fifth year, this is a far different fight, one that Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, says has become a decisive “battle in the sky.” It is a decisive moment, too, for the West.
The ground war is at a stalemate. Russia continues to claw away at Ukrainian territory, but at a snail’s pace and at an extraordinary human cost. In June alone, Ukraine inflicted nearly 40,000 Russian dead and wounded. This equates to roughly 1,300 casualties per square kilometre seized — an attrition rate 19 times higher than the previous year.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian forces have become increasingly effective at simultaneously slowing Russian advances and inflicting unsustainable enemy losses.
In contrast to the static frontline, the aerial arena is a grinding duel of attrition, destruction, and psychological warfare designed to erode the enemy’s will to fight.
Russia regularly pummels Ukrainian cities with salvoes of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, Ukraine utilises increasingly sophisticated, long-range drones to drive the Russian fleet out of the Black Sea, isolate occupied Crimea, and strike oil infrastructure and military installations deep inside Russia. The visual reality of this shift is clear: black smoke billowing from refineries in distant Omsk, contrasted against victims rescued from demolished apartment blocks in Kyiv.
“If you stop the enemy on the battlefield, if you stop the war on land, and if you deny him dominance at sea… then the next battlefield becomes the sky,” Zelenskyy noted. “And frankly, in that contest it matters far less whose territory is larger.”
What matters most is the capacity to block these aerial fusillades. Following heavy US expenditures of interceptors globally, precious few Patriot systems remain to share. During an intense Russian attack on July 6, Ukraine successfully downed drones and cruise missiles but lacked the interceptors to stop a single ballistic missile.
Russia, meanwhile, manufactures about 60 Iskander ballistic missiles every month.
Patriot interceptors have officially replaced artillery shells as Ukraine's most indispensable asset. This reality drove Zelenskyy’s recent government reshuffle; he explicitly stated that the new government's primary mandate is the procurement and co-production of air defence systems.
The financial backing exists — NATO has pledged $80 billion in military aid, supplemented by billions more from individual member states. Politically, US President Donald Trump has praised Ukraine’s tactical ingenuity, floating the idea of licensing Ukraine to manufacture the Patriot missiles it desperately requires.
Trump acknowledged that he hadn’t yet raised the license matter with the two main manufacturers of the missiles, Lockheed Martin and RTX. And even if they were to agree, it would take years for Ukraine to start full production. In the meantime, Ukraine has to compete with U.S. armed forces and 16 other foreign clients waiting for Patriot deliveries, and these fancy weapons take time to put together.
Despite these supply constraints, Ukraine is far from doomed. Following the strategic maxim to “shoot the archer, not the arrow,” Ukrainian forces have leveraged cheap, lethal, homegrown drones to strike Russian industrial hubs. These attacks have severely disrupted Russian diesel exports and neutralised naval capabilities in the Sea of Azov.
It remains remarkable how the Russian populace tolerates Vladimir Putin’s costly campaign, given a staggering battlefield toll of 450,000 casualties, declining living standards, and a tightening police state. Yet Putin remains convinced he can terrorise Kyiv into submission.
To survive the current Patriot shortage, Ukraine is collaborating with European partners to pioneer indigenous missile defence networks while deploying "Lima," an electronic warfare system capable of disrupting Russian satellite navigation.
Ultimately, the United States and Europe must accelerate their logistical commitments. Western allies should swiftly advance bipartisan sanctions on Russian oil buyers, expedite Patriot manufacturing licenses, and transfer existing air-defence stockpiles immediately. Bolstering Ukraine's skies will send an unmistakable message to the Kremlin: Moscow's time is fast running out.
The New York Times