CHRIS BUCKLEY & AMY CHANG CHIEN
For China’s leader, Xi Jinping, a key objective during his meeting with President Donald Trump this week may be persuading him to keep delaying $14 billion in proposed US arms sales to Taiwan.
Beijing has long claimed self-governed Taiwan as its territory, while Taipei relies on US military power to counter threats from the mainland. When they last met, Xi warned Trump that mishandling tensions over Taiwan could be “extremely dangerous” for both nuclear-armed powers.
“There’s only one issue that could cause relations between both sides to break down completely or erupt in conflict, and that is Taiwan,” said Xin Qiang, director of the Centre for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. “Demanding a continued delay in arms sales may be the most critical issue.”
Trump has framed the arms package as a bargaining chip. Following his May summit with Xi in Beijing, Trump confirmed discussing the deal, stating: “It’s a very good negotiating chip for us, frankly.”
He has since held off approving the shipment of missiles, anti-drone hardware, and air-defence systems. Administration officials, including Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, have also conspicuously avoided mentioning Taiwan in public speeches.
Beijing views Trump’s hesitation as a tactical win. In Washington, Xi could hint at potential costs if the sale proceeds, such as tighter restrictions on Chinese rare earth exports or skipping the G20 summit in Miami this December.
Trump, for his part, wants China to press Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil supply route effectively blocked since conflict flared in February.
“In Beijing, we saw the opening move in what will be a sophisticated play to get the Trump administration to reduce support for Taiwan,” said David Sacks, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Xi will use his meetings in Washington to continue implementing this strategy.”
Delayed arms deliveries are a political headache for Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te. Lai has promoted increased military spending and purchases of American weaponry, fulfilling Washington’s demand that partners invest more in their own defence. Trump’s stalling threatens to undermine Lai’s agenda.
Prolonged delays could also hamper Taiwan’s strategic goals by pushing the island further back in the queue for scarce military hardware.
“Ultimately, China is trying to prolong this process so it can make gains faster than Taiwan can acquire capabilities, tilting the balance in Beijing’s favour,” said Ryan Hass, a former director for China at the National Security Council and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
While some analysts expect Trump to hold off approval until late this year, others believe select weapons could be cleared sooner. Bipartisan pressure from US lawmakers is expected to build post-summit.
The impasse underscores Taiwan’s struggle to navigate Trump’s top-down, transactional style. Lacking formal diplomatic ties, Taipei finds it difficult to gauge or influence decision-making.
“With an administration that is so top-down, Taiwan’s ability to get a clear sense of developments or shape outcomes is hindered,” said Laura Rosenberger, a former Biden administration official.
In his first term, Trump approved roughly $18 billion in arms sales to Taiwan as hawks in his cabinet targeted Beijing. In his second term, however, he has emphasised pragmatic bilateral ties, scaling back trade friction after Beijing choked rare earth exports.
Taipei has sought to retain influence by cultivating Trump’s inner circle, hiring lobbyists, and hosting prominent allies. Yet, some visiting Taiwanese officials were advised by US authorities to curtail engagements with Washington research groups.
“This betrays a clear preference by President Trump to ensure Taiwan does not become an obstacle to his ambitions regarding China,” Hass noted.
Despite top-level uncertainty, bilateral security ties remain robust. Working relations between government departments have deepened.
During Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang military exercises last month, US advisers were visibly present. At a recent briefing, Defence Minister Wellington Koo coyly referenced growing numbers of “American English teachers”—a known euphemism for US military personnel whose presence rankles Beijing.
“Our friends in the US government understand how vital continued arms sales are for Taiwan’s defence,” said Chen Ming-chi, a deputy minister in Taiwan’s foreign ministry.
Trade ties have also expanded sharply. Taiwan recently surpassed China as the third-largest source of US imports, driven by shipments of semiconductors powering the American AI boom. Taiwanese officials hope this economic integration will solidify long-term support.
“We are probably the most cooperative partner in the world regarding tariffs and investment in the US,” Chen said.