NEW DELHI: Large parts of Tamil Nadu are likely to see below-normal rainfall while India is expected to get above-normal rainfall in the upcoming southwest monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday, raising hopes for a bountiful harvest for the largely agri-based economy.
According to the long-range monsoon forecast, the IMD said besides Tamil Nadu, rainfall in the northeastern region is likely to be below-normal, while the rain-deficient parts of Marathwada and adjoining Telangana are expected to witness above-normal showers.
“India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September), with the cumulative rainfall estimated at 105% (with a model error of 5%) of the long-period average of 87 cm,” M Ravichandran, secretary in the Earth Sciences Ministry, told a press conference here.
The southwest monsoon lasts from June 1 to September 30.
He said that of all the global factors that influence monsoon rainfall over India, two will have a neutral impact, and one will have a positive impact on rainfall this year.
“There is a 30% chance of normal rainfall, a 33% chance of above-normal rainfall, and a 26% chance of excess precipitation during the monsoon season,” IMD director general Mrityunjay Mohapatra said. According to the IMD, rainfall between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm is considered ‘normal’.
Rainfall less than 90% of the long-period average is considered ‘deficient’, between 90% and 95% is ‘below normal’, between 105% and 110% is ‘above normal’, and more than 110% is considered ‘excess’ precipitation.
Parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar and the northeastern states are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the monsoon season.
Normal to above-normal monsoon rainfall is expected in large parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, which form the core monsoon zone (agriculture primarily rain-fed) of the country.