NEW DELHI: The year-end rally which took the Nifty up by around 14 per cent from the 2023 October lows, is slowly running out of steam, says V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.
The major challenge for the rally comes from the US market which is showing signs of weakness.
The concern in the US now is that the market expectation of a rate cut in March may not materialise since the labour market continues to be tight and the unemployment data is lower than expected.
Inflation coming under control means that the rate hiking cycle is over and the Fed pivot is imminent. But the market will be disappointed if the rate cut doesn’t happen in March. The sign of this possible trend can be seen in the firming up of the 10-year US bond yield above 4 per cent, he said.
The exuberance of retail investors may be a positive factor which might push up the already frothy broader market. But profit booking by DIIs and seasonally weak January can impact the rally.
Long-term investors can use dips in the market to buy high quality banking stocks which are fairly priced, he added.
BSE Sensex is down 213 points at 71,812 points on Monday. FMCG stocks are down with HUL by 1.5 per cent. Marico is down 4 per cent, Godrej Consumer is down more than 3 per cent.