In a surprise announcement on February 10, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said his administration was preparing to hold presidential elections before mid-May. Alongside these elections, he is also planning a referendum on a peace deal with Russia.
This marks a dramatic shift in Zelensky’s stance. He has long resisted elections under wartime conditions, even though his mandate expired in 2024. One possible explanation is mounting pressure from the United States.
A few days earlier, Zelensky suggested as much, saying his US counterpart, Donald Trump, was pushing for a negotiated end to the war by June.
Trump’s timeline — likely influenced by the US midterm elections, when the White House may want to present a Ukraine deal as a foreign policy success — is one thing. The feasibility of elections and, even more so, a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is quite another.
The first challenge is logistics. Who will be eligible to vote, and where could voting take place? Who would monitor the elections to ensure they are free and fair? Apart from the hundreds of thousands serving on the frontlines defending Ukraine against Russia’s aggression, there are about 3.7 million internally displaced Ukrainians and nearly 6 million refugees abroad. In addition, roughly 5 million Ukrainians are living under Russian occupation.
There is also uncertainty over a Russian ceasefire — essential not only for conducting the elections but also for allowing any meaningful campaign period. Alongside this is the near certainty of large-scale Russian election interference.
A similar pattern was seen in Moldova during its presidential election and European integration referendum in 2024, and parliamentary elections in 2025, when voters were flooded with disinformation. Moscow even recruited Orthodox priests to try to sway the electorate. Russia’s attempts to influence those votes had clear limits, but that is unlikely to deter further efforts in Ukraine.
A second problem is the feasibility of any peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. At present, it is difficult to see how the gaps between the two sides can be bridged in a way that does not cross either side’s red lines, particularly on territory and security guarantees.
Even if a formula could be found that both presidents could sign, approval of such a deal in a Ukrainian referendum appears remote. If held on the same day as the presidential elections, a referendum would face the same logistical and eligibility challenges.
It is unclear what would happen if a majority of Ukrainians rejected the settlement presented in the referendum. Would this lead to renewed negotiations or a return to war? The latter appears more likely.
A third scenario could be the continuation of a fragile ceasefire and the implementation of parts of any settlement beneficial to both sides, such as prisoner exchanges.
But as seen with the ill-fated Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015, a return to full-scale war would remain a real possibility.
So far, Ukraine’s European partners have largely been on the sidelines of the peace negotiations. They may not be direct parties to the war, but they clearly have a stake in the terms that could be worked out between Moscow, Kyiv and Washington.
A mostly European coalition of the willing is expected to play a key role in implementing US-backed security guarantees and to shoulder much of the burden of Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.
But after more than a year of hostility from Washington towards Brussels, trust in the dependability of US backing has eroded. The fourth problem, therefore, is that European acquiescence to a US-imposed peace deal can no longer be assumed.
This does not necessarily mean a peace deal is impossible. But it is far less likely unless Europe is directly involved in negotiating it.
The final problem is whether Russia would accept even the best possible terms in a peace agreement and then adhere to them. The US push to seal a deal in the coming months suggests confidence in Washington that a formula acceptable to the Kremlin can be reached, and that Ukraine and its allies can be pressured to go along.
Recent developments include proposals for presidential elections in Ukraine, US leverage through security guarantees to push Kyiv towards further compromises, and parallel US–Russia talks on a possible economic arrangement.