One month ago, US President Donald Trump signed into law the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, which, among other things, authorises him to impose 100% tariffs on countries that import oil and natural gas from Russia. As Russia’s largest customer, India stood to take a direct hit. But on Oct. 16, two days before the tariffs were to come into force, Trump waived key provisions of the Act, including those tariffs on Russia’s biggest oil customers. For the Narendra Modi regime, this brings great relief — for now. Already labouring under the 10% tariffs imposed by Trump in July, India’s exporters would have been dealt a death blow had the Graham sanctions taken effect.
India has been a major buyer of Russian crude oil since 2022, when Western nations slapped sanctions on the Putin regime for the invasion of Ukraine. Russia offered India a steep discount on its oil, and New Delhi took the offer. Its purchases of Ural crude increased from 1–2% of India's crude oil imports before 2022 to more than 39%. Today, India buys 1.8 million barrels per day from Russia.
But the nature of the transaction has changed because of the US-Israel war on Iran. What used to be a decision of choice has become dependence. With oil and natural gas production facilities in the Gulf states badly damaged and supplies through the Straits of Hormuz and Bab-el Mandab severely constricted, India is now dependent on Russian oil, for which it competes with China. Had the Graham tariffs kicked in at this juncture, India would have had two choices, both hard, to make: One, to continue buying from Russia and cop 100% tariffs by the US, besides several other sanctions; Two, to bend to Trump administration pressure and switch to Venezuelan oil, more expensive to refine, thereby signing off on its energy sovereignty.
There’s no telling when this temporary relief will end. There is no fixed expiry date for Trump’s waiver. It will remain in force until he or Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in consultation with relevant officials, decides further action is appropriate. Rubio has set 60 days as an assessment period, after which the US administration will decide whether or not to prolong the waiver.
It’s pointless for India to complain about Trump’s Machiavellianism. Yes, there is a huge irony in the US threatening tariffs on buyers of Russian oil and then deciding to buy Russian diesel itself. New realities, new expedients. Trump’s decision to buy Russian diesel himself and to stay the tariffs on Moscow’s big customers is a move dictated by his political realities. His party, the Republicans, is facing unprecedented voter discontent ahead of mid-term elections to Congress. He reckons that clamping sanctions on Russian oil at a time when supplies from the Persian Gulf are unreliable would send international oil prices soaring even higher and result in a rout for his party.
The only choice for the Modi regime is to hope that this calculus of Trump will hold after the elections. Until then, New Delhi needs to withstand the pressure to buy Venezuelan oil. If the mid-term elections do leave Trump weakened, New Delhi might summon up some gumption at last. But there are no guarantees that a weak Trump won’t be even more deranged than he is now.