Stocks, FX slide on geopolitical tension; zloty up on possible political shift
MSCI's gauge for emerging market equities slid 0.7% to a near one-week low on concerns that the war between Israel and Hamas could spread to other areas in the region and pose a threat to oil supplies.
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LONDON: Most emerging market stocks and currencies fell on Monday with investors jittery as tensions escalated in the Middle East, but Poland's zloty jumped after a weekend election with the opposition looking set to oust the ruling nationalists.
MSCI's gauge for emerging market equities slid 0.7% to a near one-week low on concerns that the war between Israel and Hamas could spread to other areas in the region and pose a threat to oil supplies. The currencies index had eased 0.1% by 0904 GMT.
Oil importer Turkey's lira was at 27.8 to the dollar as crude prices eased from Friday's nearly 6% surge but remained above $90 a barrel. Traders in India, also an oil importer, said the Reserve Bank of India is likely selling dollars to ensure the rupee does not fall to a record low against the dollar.
"Typically, such periods of risk-off are quite short-lived," Commerzbank analysts wrote in a note, but they added that it is still "far too early to abandon risk-off" while it is unclear how Arab states will react to the conflict. The Israeli shekel slipped 0.2% to its lowest levels in more than seven years even as central bank Governor Amir Yaron said on Sunday that the impact of the clash with Hamas on the country's budget will be manageable.
Investors are also still concerned about U.S. monetary policy remaining tighter for longer as oil prices stay high, fuelling fears of a resurgence in inflation pressures. In central and eastern Europe, Poland's zloty spiked 1.3% and hit a nearly two-month high against the euro as the ruling Law and Justice party appeared to have lost their parliamentary majority, opening the way for the opposition to take power.
The local stock market's benchmark WIG index also surged 2.7%, led by banks. "I do expect that the better outlook for local and foreign investment and unlocking European Union funds could give the economy great potential and be positive for the currency in 2024," said Rafal Benecki, chief economist at ING Bank.
Elsewhere, China's central bank ramped up liquidity support as it rolled over medium-term policy loans in a latest effort to buttress investor confidence. However, the country's blue chips index and Hong Kong stocks both closed down 1.0%, tracking the broader weakness in global markets.
