Make the truce last longer
Given the circumstances, to have prised loose their lives, albeit momentarily, from the vice-like grip of the combatants is a major achievement by the mediators, Qatar and Egypt.
The four-day truce in the Hamas-Israel war in Gaza is to be only a brief interlude but it is welcome respite for three stakeholders who need it the most: The civilian people of Gaza, the captives taken by Hamas, and the Palestinians detained in Israeli jails. They were not party to the massacre of innocents by Hamas on Oct. 7 or the cruel collective punishment unleashed on Gaza by the Israeli state since then. Given the circumstances, to have prised loose their lives, albeit momentarily, from the vice-like grip of the combatants is a major achievement by the mediators, Qatar and Egypt.
By the terms of the truce, Hamas is to release 50 of the 240 or so hostages, and the Israeli government is to free 150 of the thousands of Palestinians it has detained without trial in the occupied territories. While Israeli spokesmen have said they would be open to an extra day of truce for every 10 additional hostages freed, there is only a slim hope of a longer respite for the people of Gaza. The Israelis insist at every opportunity that they will resume war at the end of 96 hours, and the oaths issuing from Tel Aviv indicate how keen they are to do so.
Throughout the past seven weeks, Tel Aviv has barely bothered to conceal its true intent in launching this assault on Gaza. It is no secret that securing the release of hostages has not been its only, or even its main, objective. The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) says it is to “finish off” Hamas. But several corollaries arise from such an objective, the most important one being that Hamas cannot be finished off without triggering an exodus of Palestinian civilians from Gaza. The rain of Hellfire missiles from Israel has already had that effect in the north, and with two million people corralled in the south, a sustained ground assault by the IDF, combined with constricted aid supply, is very likely to trigger a refugee exodus into the Sinai. Palestinians have always said this is Israel’s real purpose, and nothing that has been said and done in the past 50 days disproves it.
Should it unfold, such a scenario will open up the possibility of a wider conflict, forcing the hand of several actors who have restrained themselves thus far. For one, Egypt’s position as a mediator would be compromised, and any support for the Saudi royal family’s normalisation moves towards Israel will evaporate, if it hasn’t already. One reckons that the interests of Israel’s principal sponsors, the US and the European Union, also lie in that direction, although you couldn’t tell from their steadfast cosseting of Netanyahu thus far.
The present truce, although brief and tenuous, is an opportunity for the international community to pressurise Israel to extend it into a longer ceasefire. Israel itself may not be averse to the idea because popular opinion for a continuation of the war may diminish once all the captives are released by Hamas. While the present lull is only meant to allow an exchange of captives, it is necessary to use the interregnum to smoothen aid supply lines into Gaza, particularly northern Gaza. It is important to ensure that northern Gaza is quickly repopulated by Palestinians in order ward off Israel’s expansionist instincts.
