Bangladesh polls enter danger zone as deepfakes, violence feared and anti-India narrative surges

NEW DELHI: The situation in Bangladesh ahead of a very crucial February election remains fluid. Given the current mood in the nation, there is no clear winner, and the scales are tilting at a very rapid pace.

While the mood in the country is fast evolving, Indian agencies are keeping a close watch on the developments. There are ample Intelligence reports that suggest the elections would be marred by both violence and a massive misinformation campaign.

The Election Commission of Bangladesh has been busy trying to deal with the problem, but Indian officials say that it is only set to get worse closer to the elections. External influence, Artificial Intelligence, and deepfake videos threaten the elections in Bangladesh, officials in India have pointed out.

While this issue is a major one for Bangladesh, there is a worry for India as well. There are several fake videos that are in circulation, where a misinformation campaign against India has been launched. There are many elements controlled by the ISI that are creating fake videos about India and how it is meddling in the elections in Bangladesh. This needs to be urgently addressed, says an official, while also adding that there is also an attempt to create trouble in the northeast.

These elements will try and target the northeastern states with fake information, officials say. This issue has been an irritant ever since the caretaker of the interim government, Mohammad Yunus, raised the issue during his meeting with Chinese officials.

There are parties in Bangladesh who will attempt to whip up an anti-India sentiment among their voters. This is something similar on the lines of what Pakistan does.

Adding to this problem is the major push that the ISI is making to ensure that the Jamaat-e-Islami wins the elections. To achieve this, the ISI has been meddling in Bangladesh’s affairs. The ISI would ideally want the Jamaat at the helm with Yunus having some role to play in the government, Bangladesh watchers say.

The opinion polls at first were completely in favour of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). However, the recent ones suggest that the Jamaat is a very close second.

The pre-election assessment report of the International Republican Institute (IRI), a US-based think-tank, states that the support for the Awami League has evaporated. A surprise element in most of these polls is that a majority of the people are happy with the performance of Yunus.

While the opinion of the people keeps changing, Indian officials say that the real problem that the authorities in Bangladesh have to counter is the fake narrative that is being set. There have been voter suppression attempts that are being made. Two independent candidates, Beauty Begum and Abdullah Nahid, had to clarify that they were still in the race. The clarification came in the wake of a deepfake video of the two being circulated, claiming that they were withdrawing their nominations.

A deepfake video of BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman also did the rounds, in which he is shown urging the people not to criticise Israel’s actions in Gaza. This was clearly aimed at damaging him politically at a time when he faces an election in a Muslim majority country. There have also been deepfake videos in which the police are shown urging people to boycott the elections. Calls for attacks on the Opposition leaders by circulating deepfake videos have also been reported.

Indian officials say that Bangladesh does not have a strong mechanism to deal with this problem. The digital literacy rate is low, and the fact-checkers are too slow, as a result of which removal gets delayed.

The Election Commission of Bangladesh said that a central cell to combat artificial intelligence (AI) generated misinformation and disinformation during the upcoming national elections is being set up.

Indian Intelligence agencies are keeping a close watch on the developments and warn that a manipulated election would be a concern. Further, all-out attempts are being made ahead of the elections to circulate deepfake videos trying to create problems in India, especially in the Northeast, officials say.