Tech policy: China’s humanoid robot boom raises bubble fears

Robots made by Chinese startups have danced on television, staged boxing matches, and run marathons. When one company debuted its most recent robot last month, people online in China thought it looked so much like a human that workers cut the robot’s leg open onstage to reveal its metal pistons.

Despite the public fascination, concerns are growing that China’s robotics industry is moving too fast. The robots can mimic human movement and even complete basic tasks. But they are not skilled enough to handle many tasks now done by people. And with so many companies rushing into the industry, Beijing is warning of a bubble.

More than 150 manufacturers are vying for a piece of the market, the Chinese government said last month, warning that the industry was at risk for a crowd of “highly repetitive products.”

“China has an attack-first approach when it comes to the adoption of new technology,” said Lian Jye Su, a chief analyst at Omdia, a tech research firm. “But this generally leads to a large number of vendors fighting for small chunks of market.”

As it did with electric vehicles, China has gained an early global lead in making robots. China is using more robots in factories than the rest of the world combined, moving farther ahead of Japan, the United States, South Korea and Germany. Robots have transformed Chinese factory lines, doing such things as welding car parts and lifting boxes onto conveyor belts.

It is not unusual to run into a robot in Beijing. Robotic machines deliver room service in hotels and buff the floors in airports. Four-legged robots help deliver packages on university campuses.

But China is also working on the next frontier of robotics: robots that not only look but think and act like people. Public and private investors spent more than $5 billion this year on startups making humanoid robots — the same amount spent in the past five years combined.

Chinese robot makers have significant advantages. They are able to draw on the world’s strongest manufacturing sector and the backing of multiple levels of government. They are getting better at making parts such as motors and specialized screws in robot joints.

What Chinese robot startups have not been able to do is make humanoid robots that could transform the economy.

Experts say the humanoid robots that have been released struggle with unpredictable situations. They can be programmed to follow patterns, but they have a hard time reacting to events as they happen.

Chinese companies are realizing that making robots is not enough, said P.K. Tseng, a research manager at TrendForce. “Without use cases, even if they can ship the products, they don’t know where to sell them,” he said.

Company founders and investors believe that artificial intelligence will be the answer and that humanoid robots could be how AI becomes a physical force in the world.

In China, robotics companies claim they will make artificial general intelligence, or AGI, a reality. “For people in China, AGI should be something that benefits people in their everyday life,” said Sunny Cheung, a fellow at the Jamestown Foundation. “Robotics is a testament of applied AI in real life.”

While no one is certain how useful humanoid robots will turn out to be, China has already put 2 million manufacturing robots to use.