Bypolls for 4 vacant seats on May 19, results could impact ruling party

The The four vacant constituencies are — Sulur, Aravakurichi, Thirupparankundram and Ottapidaram (SC). With this, bypolls are being held for 22 seats, including seats that had fallen vacant following the disqualification of ruling AIADMK MLAs loyal to TTV Dhinakaran. The bypolls to 18 other seats are being held on April 18. The EC stated in a release that the date was decided after taking into consideration various factors like festivals, electoral rolls and the weather. The gazette notification for the four constituencies would be issued on April 22 and the last date for filing of nominations is April 29. Scrutiny of nominations would be held on April 30 and last date of withdrawal is May 2.

The Sulur seat fell vacant in March following the death of AIADMK MLA R Kanakaraj who died of cardiac arrest. Ottapidaram constituency was represented by disqualified AIADMK MLA Sundararaj while Thiruparankundram legislator AK Bose (also AIADMK) died last year. Aravakurichi was represented by Senthil Balaji, a disqualified AIADMK legislator who has since joined the DMK.

The fate of Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami-led government would be decided on May 23, when the votes are counted for 22 vacant Assembly seats. The AIADMK, which currently has 114 MLAs (including Speaker) must win at least five seats to run the government for the next two years. The current period of the AIADMK government has time till May 2021.

The DMK alliance comprising Congress and Indian Union Muslim league at present has 97 seats and if the Opposition wins at least 21 of the 22 seats, their tally in the Assembly will reach 118 and they can form a government.

In the event of neither the AIADMK nor the Opposition alliance securing a simple majority, the seats won by other parties will decide the next government in TN.

Another sword of Damocles pointing towards the AIADMK government is the DMK moved petition pending before the Supreme Court seeking disqualification of 11 AIADMK MLAs including Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam who voted against the EPS government in February 2018.