Will Sasikala be able to hold sway over party?

The triumph of Jayalalithaa could be attributed to two factors – the popularity she achieved through her movies since she was one of favourite heroines of ‘Makkal Thilagam’ and her close political association with her political mentor and AIADMK founder MGR. Sasikala, the close aide of the late Chief Minister Jayalalithaa for several decades, too faces a similar litmus test. 

However, the choices now are an AIADMK led by Sasikala or a party minus Sasikala. For this ‘tenacious housewife from Mannargudi,’ her only strength is the close relationship she enjoyed with Jayalalithaa and the immense influence she wielded in the corridors of power in the state. But leading one of the largest political parties in India will be a different ball game for Jayalalithaa’s aide. The immediate concern for her will be acceptance by the party cadre as well as the people of the state. Even in the event of she being accepted by the rank and file of AIADMK, some of the other major issues that she would have to tackle would be holding the party together, devising a thorough and powerful strategy to retain AIADMK’s vote bank and last but not the least, protecting the party from being split by political rivals. 

Her first test could be the upcoming by-election in RK Nagar assembly constituency, which fell vacant following the death of Jayalalithaa. The result of RK Nagar will be a mandate for Sasikala’s leadership skills. And again, to win the trust of the cadre and the people she will have to either contest the by-poll or hit the campaign trail after identifying a candidate of her choice and ensuring victory. As far as the vote bank of AIADMK goes, her immediate task will be to retain it. 

Importantly, Sasikala, if at all she becomes the general secretary and leads the party, should devise an appropriate strategy to stop ‘supporters’ votes from going to other parties. Political observers feel that there is a possibility of the ‘deciding factor votes’ changing direction and a major part of it may either go to BJP and a significant percentage to DMK. 

If she manages to hold AIADMK vote base intact, then it will be a strong testimony of her being a powerful strategist. The next and equally challenging task for the Mannargudi madam will be to protect the party from being split by rivals and at the same time, wipe out opposition to her leadership within the party. Already, some groups have reportedly come together based on caste lines within the party taking divergent stands – one backing Sasikala and the other trying to split and prove their command over the party. 

“If Sasikala manages to patch up with these groups and keep them under her control, then she will become the single point of command like the kind of respect Jayalalithaa commanded in the party,” says political observer Ganesan, who added, “The best way to wriggle out of such a situation is to give substantial responsibilities to leaders of various groups and silence them.” The chances of attempts to destabilise the government by rivals seems a remote possibility. Sources in DMK said that their party has never had a record of toppling a government. 

“Even during 2006-11 DMK, which was short of the working majority, completed the term only as a ‘minority government. Now, too we will not topple the government but wait for AIADMK to crumble by itself due to infighting,” said Vetrivendan a long-time functionary of DMK. BJP and Congress may also adopt the wait-and- watch policy as they are not expected to gain much by toppling the government. Given the prevailing situation, the next six months will turn out to be an agni parik sha for Sasikala.