Guatemala prepares to hold its troubled presidential election

GUATEMALA CITY: On August 20, a former first lady and the son of a former president will face off in Guatemala's presidential runoff, bringing to an end a contentious campaign that has alarmed observers about the country's future as inequality and corruption fuel political unrest in the region, according to CNN.

Sandra Torres, who is primarily regarded as a continuity candidate for the political establishment, will face off against Bernardo Arévalo, an anti-corruption politician who exceeded expectations by placing second in the first round of voting in June.

In the first round of voting in June, Torres received 16 per cent of the vote, while Arévalo received 11.8 per cent. However, more than 24 per cent of voters cast blank or invalid ballots, and about 40 per cent of eligible voters stayed home, which analysts have attributed to high levels of dissatisfaction with Guatemala's electoral system after the state disqualified opposition candidates who spoke out against corruption, according to CNN.

Guatemala watchers are cautiously hopeful that the popular will might prevail.

Rights groups say graft and impunity accelerated among the country’s political class after a United Nations-backed anti-corruption commission, known as CICIG, credited for assisting in hundreds of convictions, was dissolved in 2019, CNN reported.

Prosecutors and judges associated with the commission were arrested, investigated, and many have been forced to flee the country in the ensuing years amid high rates of poverty and malnutrition.

Worries about democratic backsliding began to mount in this year’s election cycle as anti-corruption candidates were barred from running, prompting widespread criticism from the US and Western allies, CNN reported.

Arévalo, who previously served as ambassador to Spain, has also faced attempts to disqualify him. A Guatemalan court suspended his Movimiento Semilla party on the request of Rafael Curruchiche, who heads the Special Prosecutor’s Office Against Impunity and is on the US State Department Engels list for “corrupt and undemocratic actors.” Curruchiche said they were investigating Movimiento Semilla for allegedly falsifying citizens’ signatures – a claim Arévalo has denied, CNN reported.

But he was ultimately allowed to run in the first round following international outcry by the US, European Union and a group of international donors, known as the G13, which includes the United Kingdom and Canada. Even Torres announced she would suspend her political campaign in solidarity with Movimiento Semilla.

Unemployment, corruption, and high living costs are at the top of voters’ minds as they head to the polls on August 20, CNN reported.

Torres has pledged to expand the country’s social programs and has advocated for tough policies to tackle crime in the style of Nayib Bukele, the president of neighbouring El Salvador. She holds support among rural voters, garnered when she helped get more cash transfers and benefits as first lady more than a decade ago.

The 67-year-old heads one of the country’s largest political parties, Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE), and served as the country’s first lady alongside her ex-husband, the centre-left former President Alvaro Colom, from 2008 to 2011.

This is the third presidential cycle Torres has competed in, losing in 2019 to current President Alejandro Giammattei. Her time in the spotlight has made her one of the most recognized names in the political race, although many Guatemalans have indicated they will not vote for her, CNN reported.

Current momentum appears to be behind the former diplomat. Arévalo is seen as a pragmatist from the centre-left Movimiento Semilla party, which he co-founded in 2017, and may be able to tap into widespread discontent against the current political class. His father, Juan José Arévalo, was Guatemala’s first democratically elected president in 1945 and is fondly remembered for creating the country’s social security system.

He has promised to bring back the journalists, judges and prosecutors who fled the country in the wake of the government shutting down CICIG – this includes his party’s former presidential contender, Thelma Aldana, known for her anti-corruption crusades that led to the conviction of a former president. Aldana was barred from running in the 2019 race, CNN reported.

Guatemala currently recognizes Taiwan, and Arévalo has said he would like Guatemala to have relations with both Taipei and Beijing.

Guatemala’s business elite have warmed to him, with Duolingo Chief Executive Luis Von Ahn announcing on X that he had contributed USD 100,000 to his campaign, CNN reported.

Congress is set to be largely controlled by establishment parties following this year’s elections, including the outgoing president’s Vamos party and Torres’ UNE. Even if Arévalo does win at the polls Sunday, there may be many more hurdles to come.