TN’s revises power demand forecast, evening peak to cross 24,000 MW with deficit to hit 6,162 MW

CHENNAI: Tamil Nadu has sharply revised its power demand projections for 2027, with evening peak requirement expected to cross 24,000 MW during July-September 2027 and the deficit projected to touch 6,162 MW in September. The revised assessment comes at a time when the State is struggling to secure short-term power at viable rates, having cancelled two procurement tenders within three days after suppliers quoted as much as Rs 35-41.50 per unit.

The revised demand projections, submitted by the Tamil Nadu Power Distribution Corporation Limited (TNPDCL) at the 243rd Operational Coordination Committee (OCC) meeting of the Southern Regional Power Committee (SRPC) on October 9, show a substantial increase over its earlier estimates. The evening peak demand for September 2027 has been revised to 24,350 MW from 22,345 MW, while projected availability remains unchanged at 18,188 MW.

The upward revision is particularly steep during the summer months of 2027. The July evening peak requirement has been raised by 2,910 MW to 24,330 MW from 21,420 MW in the earlier estimate. The August projection has gone up by 2,985 MW to 24,300 MW from 21,315 MW. The September estimate has increased by 2,005 MW to 24,350 MW.

The revised demand projections come amid concerns over the impact of El Niño on electricity consumption, particularly during the summer. The State's actual maximum demand has already registered a significant year-on-year increase. Tamil Nadu's maximum demand rose from 18,386 MW in September 2025 to 21,083 MW in September 2026, an increase of 2,697 MW or 14.67%.

Across the southern region, maximum demand increased by 23.24% during the same period. Normally, the State's summer power demand will come down from July but this year it touched an all-time high demand of 21,724 MW on July 14, while record energy consumption of 475.477 MU on July 17. Usually, the record power demand and consumption happen in April or May. Officials attributed it to the El Nino impact. The trend continues in 2027 as well.

The evening peak deficit is projected to remain above 3,000 MW in most months and widen sharply during the summer. It is estimated at 5,544 MW in April 2027, 5,592 MW in July and 5,612 MW in August, before touching 6,162 MW in September. The earlier estimate for September had placed the shortfall at 4,157 MW.

The state is also expected to face an energy deficit from March 2027. The requirement is projected at 13,118 million units (MU) against availability of 12,436 MU in March, leaving a gap of 682 MU. The deficit is expected to widen to 2,394 MU in April, when demand is estimated at 14,369 MU against availability of 11,975 MU.

The energy shortfall is projected at 1,186 MU in May, 1,107 MU in June, and 2,176 MU in July. It is expected to narrow to 550 MU in August and 952 MU in September. The state is projected to return to an energy surplus of 905 MU in October 2027. Energy requirement is expected to peak at 15,276 MU in July 2027, against availability of 13,100 MU.

The mounting demand projections are also posing a challenge for TNPDCL's short-term power procurement plans. On October 29, the state cancelled a short-term tender floated on October 22 to procure power between November 2026 and January 2027 to meet round-the-clock (RTC) and peak-hour requirements. Suppliers had quoted rates ranging from Rs 8.50 to Rs 35 per unit, with several peak-hour offers touching Rs 35, which the state considered unviable.

This followed the cancellation on October 27 of another tender seeking 1,000 MW of power during evening peak hours, from 6 pm to midnight, between November 2026 and May 2027. Companies had quoted between Rs 37 and Rs 41.50 per unit, prompting the government to scrap the procurement plan.

After the twin tender cancellations, TNPDCL hopes to get a better result in the tender to be opened on November 6 to procure peak power ranging from 750 MW to 1200 MW and 1250 MW to 2000 MW RTC power from February to July. "We are also planning to tie up medium- and long-term power procurement to meet our demand. Also to commence generation in the ongoing Udangudi second unit of 660 MW and 2X660 MW Ennore SEZ project to meet the next year's demand," a senior official said.