Tamil Nadu Assembly polls 2026 | Three fronts battle it out, one date with history

CHENNAI: From new entrants and sulking patriarchs and matriarchs to culling of names after the special intensive revision of electoral rolls, there are too many variables for any sane person to place a bet on who will win the Tamil Nadu Assembly election, the results of which will be announced on Monday.

However, while the mystery over the outcome will be dispelled only when the final results come in, there is one aspect that is certain: Whoever wins the election will script history this time around.

If the MK Stalin-led DMK retains power, it will make history, as the party has not secured consecutive victories since 1971 – a long gap of 55 years. If the AIADMK-led alliance wins, it will also create history, as it would be the party’s first Assembly victory after the death of its mascot and supremo, J Jayalalithaa, and opposition leader Edappadi K Palaniswami would return as the Chief Minister, joining a stellar line-up that includes K Kamaraj, MG Ramachandran, M Karunanidhi, and Jayalalithaa to occupy the throne more than once.

Now, if Vijay’s TVK wins, it would be an even bigger political milestone, comparable to the victory of MG Ramachandran. In fact, if that is the way the chips fall, it would be a more impactful debut, capturing power within two years of launching his party — MGR founded the AIADMK in 1972, won the Dindigul Lok Sabha bypoll the next year, and later won the Assembly election in 1977.

The run up to the war was as exciting as it was excruciating for pollsters. Election prediction is an easy game when there is a wave for any party or front – or mostly against the incumbent. But there were no clearly perceivable currents, at least at the surface level. In such cases, winning a contest is mostly a matter of election management. However, popular actor Vijay’s decision to finally throw the hat in upended that script.

When Vijay decided to run the race through the narrow lanes of Tamil Nadu politics to reach Fort St George, it whipped up his legion of fans’ emotions to a frenzy. While it seems clear that he would corner a sizable chunk of votes, the question that none is able to answer with confidence is whose vote he would cut into.

But it is easier to put those words in writing and speech but tougher to change minds and bring the votes to booth, as both Dravidian majors are parties built from the ground up, with grassroots support and proven skill in election management. It would take a tsunami, not merely a strong current or even a wave, to occupy that space.

Another factor is the presence of NTK and its seemingly indefatigable leader Seeman, who wears the defeats that he faced as a medal of honour. It still is a party that is far from harbouring any hopes of winning power. But in a three-corner fight like this one, even a fraction of votes that it gathers has the ability to upset the equations in select seats and thus the overall result.

Within this war is the story of smaller but potentially important battles. PMK founder S Ramadoss, who is waging a tug-of-war with his son and party president Anbumani Ramadoss, and ousted AIADMK leader VK Sasikala have joined forces to lure Vanniyar and Thevar votes away from their parent parties. Both are aiming to teach their kin and erstwhile comrades a lesson. Then there is Puthiya Tamilagam leader K Krishnasamy, who hopes to eat into Pallar votes in south Tamil Nadu.

They can play only spoilers at best, but even the smallest fractions are important for the AIADMK, as almost all votes they eat into will be from the NDA that it is leading in Tamil Nadu. On the other hand, the DMK will also have to keep an eye out for the impact that T Velmurugan would have in the northern region.

If all these were not enough, there is the unknown element of special intensive revision. The purification of electoral rolls shortly before the election led to the removal of more than 67 lakh names.

In a few hours, the real numbers will start coming in. All those equations filled with castes, communities, regions, and numbers like 234 seats, 4,023 candidates, 5.73 crore voters, over 8 crore population, will boil down to just one question and one number: Who will win 118 seats?