‘Super El Nino’ brewing in Pacific, Tamil Nadu could face flood risk: Weather blogger

CHENNAI: Tamil Nadu could face severe weather disruptions during the northeast monsoon, with private weather blogger Hemachander warning that a developing Super El Nino may intensify rainfall and increase the risk of flooding in the State.

A powerful Super El Nino is developing in the Pacific and could reach an intensity comparable to or even greater than the El Nino events of 1997 and 2015 by the end of this month.

Extreme weather warning

In a social media post, Hemachander said the sea surface temperature anomaly has risen to 29.6°C, around 2.75°C above the average. He claimed that a Super El Nino has developed unusually early this year and warned that its effects could become more pronounced in the coming months.

He also pointed to a series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific, which could trigger Kelvin waves and push additional heat towards the surface, further strengthening the El Nino conditions.

Hemachander said the phenomenon could intensify further by November and urged people not to ignore the possible impact of El Nino, stressing the need for advance preparedness.

Flood threat

For Chennai and its suburbs, the warning assumes significance as October, November and December are typically the peak northeast monsoon months, when several parts of the city remain vulnerable to flooding.

The possibility of intense rainfall and flooding due to the evolving El Nino conditions has raised concerns among residents. The State government is expected to take precautionary measures well in advance to minimise the impact of any extreme weather during the upcoming monsoon.

What is El Nino?

According to the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there are three ocean states or phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle namely the El Niño (warm phase), La Niña (cold phase) and neutral. These phases that occur in the Pacific Ocean represent shifts in sea surface temperatures and trade winds, which have the capacity to affect global weather, ecosystems and ocean temperatures.

Climatic experts describe El Niño as a natural climate event that originates in the Pacific when surface water temperatures become significantly warmer than normal. This affects wind patterns and atmospheric circulation across the globe, which also includes India where it significantly suppresses rainfall levels during the southwest monsoon season.

It may be noted that the Spanish term ‘El Niño’ which translates to ‘the boy’ originated among the South American fishermen community years ago when they first noticed the warm currents appearing around December. However, as days went by, the term has been widely used across the globe to describe the powerful weather phenomenon.

Experts to monitor El Niño threat

According to a recent Government Order issued by the Revenue and Disaster Management Department, acommittee has been constituted under the Disaster Management Act, 2005, to advise the Tamil Nadu Disaster Risk Reduction Agency (TNDRRA) on scientific and precautionary measures.

The move follows a proposal from the Commissioner of Revenue Administration and the State Relief Commissioner, who warned of a high probability that a severe El Niño event will develop in 2026, which could affect monsoon rainfall and increase the risk of droughts and floods.

The committee will be chaired by the Commissioner of Revenue Administration and State Relief Commissioner. Its members include S Kanmani, head, Centre for Climate Change and Disaster Management, Anna University; Professor Balaji Narasimhan of IIT Madras; Arivudai Nambi Appadurai, Director, Climate Resilience Practice, WRI India; Ramesh Ramachandran, advisor to the Tamil Nadu Green Climate Company; R Venkatesan, expert member of the State Environmental Appraisal Committee; JK Patterson Edward, director, Suganthi Devadason Marine Research Institute; and P Pradeep John, popularly known as Tamil Nadu Weatherman and senior manager at Tamil Nadu Urban Infrastructure Financial Services Limited (TNUIFSL).

(inputs from Bureau)