November forecast for Tamil Nadu: Softer Murasu, deficient rainfall

CHENNAI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall across South Peninsular India covering Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka in November, with precipitation expected to be less than 77% of the normal baseline rainfall of 118.7 mm for the region.

The impact of Cyclone Murasu, the second cyclone of the northeast monsoon season, on Tamil Nadu is also expected to be limited.

According to the IMD, prevailing El Niño conditions are likely to gradually reduce rainfall intensity during November. However, winter and early spring weather patterns associated with El Niño are expected to persist until March. Below-normal rainfall is forecast across most parts of the country, except for some areas in central, northwest and northeast India, which are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

An IMD official said India normally experiences four to five cyclones annually, with three to four forming between October and December and one or two between April and May.

"While the overall frequency of cyclones has been declining over the long term, the number of intense cyclones has remained stable or may even increase," the official said.

Meanwhile, a well-marked low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal, adjoining the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Andaman Sea, moved west-northwestwards and intensified into a depression. It was located about 330 km west-southwest of Sri Vijayapuram and 1,140 km east-southeast of Chennai.

The system is very likely to intensify into a deep depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal within the next 12 hours and subsequently develop into Cyclonic Storm Murasu. It is expected to reach the west-central Bay of Bengal, near the Andhra Pradesh coast, around Monday.

Light to moderate rain accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning is likely in some areas in Chennai. The maximum and minimum temperatures on Monday are expected to hover around 34 degrees Celsius and 25 degrees Celsius, respectively.