El Niño effect: Next summer may begin in January itself

CHENNAI: Hotter summers, erratic but intense monsoons, prolonged dry spells, urban flooding, and all around climate chaos.

The effects of the dreaded climate phenomenon, El Niño, which is already being felt, is threatening to be disastrous for Tamil Nadu – and India – warn weather experts. Making matters worse, they are predicting that its effects are likely to hit us from January 2027 itself.

The warning comes amid growing global concerns over the strengthening of El Niño conditions.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said that the climatic phenomenon is developing rapidly, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts and extreme weather events in several parts of the world, including the Indian subcontinent.

Speaking to DT Next, Dr VR Durai, an atmospheric scientist who heads the Area Cyclone Warning Centre at the Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai, said temperatures are expected to rise as El Niño strengthens further during the latter part of the year.

The average temperatures during October and November could be around 1.5° Celsius to 2° Celsius above normal, he said.

That is not all. "The warming associated with El Niño is expected to persist for three to four months. This could lead to warmer days and nights across several regions," he said. That means, the December to mid-February period, the only time of the year when Chennai receives respite from the heat, is likely to be much hotter than usual.

India has already been experiencing the effects of El Niño through above-normal temperatures and changing rainfall patterns, which have impacted agricultural activities in several regions. According to the WMO, El Niño conditions are forecast to strengthen further, increasing the risks of extreme heat, intense rainfall events, and prolonged dry spells.

"El Niño conditions are also expected to influence seasonal rainfall patterns. While rainfall may not necessarily decrease everywhere, we are likely to witness more intense North West monsoon rainfall events occurring within a short duration," he said.

Explaining the nature of these extreme events, Durai said the rainfall that would normally be received over an hour could fall within just 20 minutes during severe weather episodes. "For instance, an area that usually records around 7 cm of rainfall over an hour may receive the same amount within 20 minutes during an extreme event. Such high intensity rainfall increases the risk of urban flooding and waterlogging," he said.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterised by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It typically occurs for two years and influences global atmospheric circulation, often resulting in heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and other weather extremes across different parts of the world.

Meteorologists closely monitor El Niño because of its significant influence on agriculture, water resources, and disaster management planning. Variations in rainfall and temperature can affect crop productivity, reservoir levels, and overall weather conditions.

Anticipating the formation of El Niño, climate experts have been monitoring the situation since January. As they feared, the El Niño condition began in March, the scientist said. “Based on current projections, we may begin experiencing the influence of El Niño from January 2027 itself. If these projections hold, the summer of 2027 is likely to be hotter than what we are experiencing this year," he said.