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However, though Tamil Nadu witnessed twoback-to-back cyclones in December alone, the enthusiasts trackingweather said these were yet to be directly linked to climate change yet.
According to weather bloggers, there is a trend of intensification of cyclonic storms in open seas over the last few years. “The Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea are some of the warmest in the world, which is why we receive more intense cyclones despite being a smaller basin. There is a possibility that the added warmth due to climate change is further intensifying these cyclones,” said K Srikanth, who runs the page Chennai Rains, citing the examples of Vardah, Gaja and Thane cyclones that intensified closer to the coast.
Looking at the last decade, weather bloggers agree that there has been an increase of very severe to extremely severe cyclones, such as Maha, Ockhi and Vardah, and have also brought in more rain over a short period of time. In addition, some of the cyclones have acted against typical knowledge. Cyclone Gaja was expected to lose intensity as a west-southwest moving cyclone, but did the opposite.
Despite anecdotal perception, however, the data remains inconsistent to draw precise conclusions on the matter, noted popular weather blogger Pradeep John. “Based on my analysis, Tamil Nadu sees very intense cyclones for over a decade, which is followed by a lull. Between 1990 and 2000, we saw cyclones like the one that hit Karaikal at a speed of 167 km/hr. This was followed by a lull, and between 2010 to now, we saw cyclones like Vardah, which has wind speeds of 122 km/hr on landfall. The data remains inconclusive to say if Tamil Nadu is seeing this trend, and we cannot say what will occur in the future,” he said.
Bloggers agreed that the impact of oceanic intensification of cyclones on the State can only be analysed in the years to come, and if it can be linked to climate change.
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