CHENNAI: Seat-sharing negotiations between the AIADMK and the BJP are expected to prioritise the winnability of constituencies over the sheer number of seats allocated.
The BJP is a part of the AIADMK-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Tamil Nadu. In the previous Assembly election, the BJP contested 20 constituencies and secured four seats. For the upcoming Assembly polls, the party is keen not only to contest more seats than it did last time, but also to increase its representation in the State Assembly.
In this context, the BJP has demanded more than 35 constituencies from the AIADMK as part of the seat-sharing arrangement. The party is citing its improved performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha election to bolster its demand for a larger share of seats. In that election, the BJP finished second in 10 Lok Sabha constituencies and secured around 11.4 per cent of the vote share across the State.
However, sources within the AIADMK indicate that the party is not inclined to agree to the number of seats sought by the BJP. The AIADMK leadership is said to have reservations about whether the BJP can win in many of the constituencies it is eyeing, barring a few select ones.
As a result, the AIADMK is likely to propose a formula based on winnability. The party is expected to conduct a constituency-wise analysis of the vote share secured by the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections and identify segments where the BJP has demonstrated strong and consistent support. AIADMK leaders believe that allocating such favourable constituencies would enhance the BJP’s chances of victory.
Sources suggest that during the seat-sharing negotiations, the AIADMK will emphasise the importance of the BJP contesting in constituencies with a higher probability of victory, rather than merely increasing the number of seats.
At the same time, the BJP — which aims to improve its previous tally of MLAs — is also expected to respond positively to the AIADMK’s strategy, as it could improve the alliance's overall chances of winning more seats in the forthcoming Assembly elections.