Battle for WTC Final heats up as India takes on New Zealand

CHENNAI: Less than three percentage points separate the top three teams in the World Test Championship (WTC) standings, turning the final stretch into an intense scramble for points.  New Zealand heads into the two-match Test series against India atop the WTC standings with 72.22 PCT, with South Africa (71.43 PCT) close behind after a comeback win over Australia in the three-match series. Australia’s loss has pushed it behind to third, with 69.23 PCT. 

But what does each team have to do to make it to the final at The Oval?

New Zealand

PCT: 72.22, Six Tests, four wins, one draw, one loss

Remaining series: India (H), Australia (A), Sri Lanka (H), Pakistan (A)

New Zealand finds itself on top of the WTC, thanks to Australia’s 2-1 defeat in South Africa. The task, however, begins now for Tom Latham’s men, as they welcome India for a two-match series. Whilst they start as favourites, having toppled India in India, Shubman Gill’s men have shown that they can do well in foreign conditions. 

What follows the Indian series could prove to be New Zealand’s biggest test: a trip to Australia, where they have struggled to win for the longest time. The fact that it is a four-match Test series puts them on the back foot. Five wins and a draw could potentially take them above 60 PCT, provided they avoid any penalties for a slow over-rate. That could come through four wins against India and Sri Lanka and a victory away to Pakistan.

A sixth win potentially coming in Australia will augur well for the Kiwis, pushing its PCT closer to 65%, which could be enough to qualify. 

South Africa

PCT: 71.43, Seven Tests, five wins, zero draw, two losses

Remaining series: Bangladesh (H), England (H), Sri Lanka (A)

Defending champions South Africa proved itself with a come-from-behind series win against Australia. Now, with 71.43 PCT, it stands a real shot at making it to The Oval to retain its WTC title. However, for them to keep it at 60%, they will need three more wins and will have to avoid a loss. 

With a win earning a team 12 points, South Africa will be confident of securing 24 points from the Bangladesh series. Easier said than done, considering the Asian side has shown that it can spring a surprise against stronger opponents. Following the Bangladesh series, South Africa will host England for a three-match Test series, offering another opportunity to pick up points against a side in transition.

However, the two-match Test series in Sri Lanka could be tricky, considering the conditions. 

Australia

PCT: 69.23, 13 Tests, nine wins, four losses

Remaining series: New Zealand (H), India (A)

Australia’s qualification hopes still rest in its hands despite the loss in South Africa. For that to materialise, however, Pat Cummins’ men will have to whitewash New Zealand, which will earn them 48 points to boost its PCT closer to 60%. 

Since the 2004-05 season, Australia have enjoyed a near-perfect record against their trans-Tasman rivals. Barring the one Test they lost in the 2011-12 season, Australia have either won or drawn their matches. The four-match series against New Zealand, therefore, presents Australia's biggest opportunity to leapfrog their rivals and reclaim the top spot.

But if they fail to do so, then the next five Tests against India become a do-or-die. Australia hasn't had a lot of success in India, losing 12 out of its last 18 matches. That makes the New Zealand series all the more important. 

India

PCT: 51.52, 11 Tests, five wins, four losses, two draws

Remaining series: New Zealand (A), Australia (H)

India is staring at the bottom of the barrel after defeats at home against New Zealand and South Africa. But with 51.52 PCT, it can still leapfrog other sides, as it faces two of the top three teams — New Zealand and Australia — in its remaining fixtures.

But India’s first challenge is New Zealand away from home. History, however, hasn’t been very kind to India, with only one series win in New Zealand over the last 50 years. That said, Gautam Gambhir played an integral role when India last won a series there, and he now returns in a different capacity as head coach.

Considering how the batting has fared in foreign conditions, the battle between bat and ball could make all the difference for India. If they fail to secure a win in New Zealand, the equation becomes complicated, as it will have to win all its remaining games. 

Six wins and a draw would take India to 64.81 PCT, while seven wins would push it to 70.37 PCT, which could virtually seal a place in the final. But if India fails to win a single game in New Zealand, it will have to win all five Tests against Australia at home. However, Gambhir’s men would not want to leave it that late.

Bangladesh

PCT: 45.83, 8 Tests, three wins, three losses, two draws

Remaining series: South Africa (A), England (H)

With Australia and India in uncertain positions, Bangladesh had an outside chance of making it to the WTC final. However, those hopes began to fade after it lost the first Test against the West Indies. The second Test did not go the Tigers’ way either, as the 0-1 series defeat at home leaves them at a crossroads.

Don’t take them lightly, however. Bangladesh will draw inspiration from its famous win in Australia and emulate that against South Africa, and two wins could help them leapfrog South Africa to third spot with 56.67 PCT. If they win their next two home fixtures against England, it could push them closer towards 64 PCT, making the race for the top two spots close.