Editorial: Of tragedies, and statistics
Chennai
As India surpassed the grim figure of 2 mn coronavirus cases on Friday, with over 41,000 deaths to speak of, the country has outshone its peers by exhibiting the fastest growth rate of COVID-19 cases anywhere in the world.
Recording as many as 62,482 cases on Thursday, India’s jump from 1 mn cases (on July 16) to 2 mn cases took just about 21 days. A cause for concern is that India’s doubling rate i.e. number of days that it takes for the COVID-19 infections to double is 22.7 days, a little over 3 weeks. What’s more troubling is that despite trailing the US (at 4.8 mn cases) and Brazil (at 2.9 mn cases) when it comes to the number of people infected, our doubling rate is much higher than that of the two countries, when taken in the context of the day that the two nations breached 2 mn cases. The doubling rate of the US was 60.2 days and Brazil was 35.7 days when they hit this number.
Experts believe if India’s tally keeps rising at this rate, it could exceed the count of these two nations unless we reverse this trend or get hold of a vaccine. It seems like a tall order as over the past few weeks, India has witnessed the so-called hotspots of COVID-19, namely the metropolitan regions of Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and New Delhi, which had reported the maximum growth in cases, now making way for newer states to join the fray, like Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, and UP. The trend is not an encouraging one, as the healthcare machinery of these states will now be put through the same burden that the hotspots were subjected to, during their peaks.
Even in the case of Tamil Nadu, what we are witnessing right now is a surge of sorts in districts other than Chennai. Of the 5,600 odd cases reported in the state on Thursday, the capital saw just about 1,091 new cases, leaving the heavier burden of cases on other districts. But here lies the catch. Stakeholders in the healthcare space believe that once the cases start moving away from the urban hubs and begin penetrating rural regions, there will be a blurring of sorts when it comes to the reportage of COVID-19 cases as well as casualties. And this is purely relative to the strength of the healthcare infrastructure in the rural pockets of India.
During the course of the pandemic, there were several ‘blink and miss’ cases reported where caregivers of those exhibiting symptoms of COVID-19 in several rural areas could not either make it on time to the hospital due to the unavailability of an ambulance or even find specialists competent enough to offer interventional care to those affected. It was harrowing to witness how hospitals in urban regions were overwhelmed in the backdrop of continuous admissions due to COVID-19. But one might not even be able to fathom the kind of chaos that would ensue once India’s hinterlands begin to exhibit the kind of COVID statistics that its urban neighbours have been seeing for more than four months now.
The need of the hour is to ensure that enough and more resources are gradually redirected towards rural pockets where a surge in COVID-19 cases is expected. The local healthcare capacity of vulnerable regions will need to be reassessed and ample measures will need to be taken to strengthen both the primary and tertiary facilities available to such populations. Whether one likes to admit it or not, the 3 mn count is just around the corner, and things might only take a turn for the worse, if caution and preparedness are ignored at the altar of false bravado.
Visit news.dtnext.in to explore our interactive epaper!
Download the DT Next app for more exciting features!
Click here for iOS
Click here for Android