Chennai
To be precise, the whole nation eagerly awaits the election results in Tamil Nadu more than in the other states which went to polls this year. There is a clear divide in the exit polls put out by the media and among the public when it comes to naming the ultimate winner, whether AIADMK or DMK.
If both the parties win 116 seats each in the 232 segments that went to polls on May 16, then the two postponed elections in Aravakurichi and Thanjavur will hold the key as the party that clinches both of them will get a clear edge over the other.
According to political observers and legal experts, if the two seats are shared equally by both the Dravidian majors after winning the 116 seats, then the single largest party, irrespective of the combine they are allied with, will be called by the Governor to form the government. In that case, the total number of seats won by a combine will not be taken into count (i.e. the DMK+Cong or the DMDK+PWF+TMC).
“If both the major Dravidian parties fall short of the magic number of 117, then the other parties with less number of seats will come into picture. But, they might not support either of the Dravidian giants, as all of them have contested the election mainly to prepare their ground for the next Assembly election in 2021.
The parties with less number of seats may even abstain from voting. So, it will be back to the single largest party in the House,” opines Subramanian Ganesan, a political observer.
Another fact is that this election being complex in nature because of the multi-cornered contest as well as the urban-rural divide in voting per cent, it will be difficult to predict the winner going by the trends during counting as it is likely to vary from time to time till the end of the process.
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