India's R-naught value recorded at 4: 5 points on IIT Madras analysis

India's R-naught value which indicates the spread of Covid was recorded at 4 this week, suggesting a very high infection transmission rate, according to a preliminary analysis by IIT Madras predicting the peak of the third wave between February 1-15.

1) R-naught or R0 indicates the number of people an infected person can spread the disease to. A pandemic is considered to end if this value goes below 1.

2) Based on preliminary analysis by computational modeling done by IIT Madras, the R0 value was close to 2.9 nationally in the past week (December 25 to December 31). The number was recorded at 4 this week (January 1-6).

3) R0 depends on three things -- transmissibility probability, contact rate and the expected time interval in which infection can happen.

4) Now, with the increase in quarantine measures or restrictions, maybe the contact rate will go down and then in that case R0 can decrease.

5) The Union Health Ministry on Wednesday highlighted that the country's R naught value is 2.69, higher than the 1.69 recorded during the peak of the pandemic's second wave.

6) Jha said the ministry's estimates are based on a different time interval than IIT Madras which has done the preliminary analysis from the past two weeks.