Message behind the reshuffle

What Prime Minister Narendra Modi did on Wednesday was to radically overhaul his council of ministers. It is as if, not content with merely shuffling the pack, he went and got himself a whole new deck.

This is probably exactly what Modi wanted to signal with this extensive revamp. Faced with growing resentment over mishandling of the COVID-19 virus and threatened by the prospect of losing more States in the next round of Assembly elections, the time had probably come, from his perspective, to signal that the government has, with a clutch of new faces, a new energy and intent. The timing of the announcement, which comes when the second wave of COVID-19 seems to be petering out, was probably closely calibrated.

There are many things to note in this exercise that has been determined by varying compulsions. First, there is the issue of performance. Oddly enough, this has been dealt with in the most unusual way with the dropping of as many as 12 ministers, including seven of Cabinet rank, including heavyweights such as Harsh Vardhan and Ravi Shankar Prasad. The former was pilloried for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the latter was caught up in the controversy over the potentially oppressive rules framed under the Information Technology Act, which has huge implications for the media. The inclusion of technocrats or at least the technologically-minded into the Council of Ministers could signal that Modi wants to push government policy in key areas with a renewed fervour.

Two cases in point are Jyotiraditya Scindia, the new minister for aviation, who has been waiting ever since his rebellion in Madhya Pradesh and the big responsibilities thrust on ex-IAS officer Ashwini Vaishnaw, now Minister for Railways, Communications, Electronics and Information Technology.

All reshuffles have a political character and this one is not lacking in this either. The next round of Assembly elections appears to have influenced the selection, with as many as seven new faces from Uttar Pradesh, a critical state to hold from the BJP’s perspective. Interestingly, six of the seven are either OBCs or Scheduled Castes, a recognition of the caste constituencies that the BJP needs to retain to hold UP. The induction of 12 Dalits and 15 OBC members as fresh faces in the Council of Ministers is intended to project the BJP as the champion of the downtrodden. The number of women has almost doubled to 11 in what Modi wants to project as a rainbow cabinet.

The expansion goes against the principle of minimum government and placing caps on the number of ministers, something that Modi had promised in 2014. But with elections looming, political compulsions have trumped other considerations. It is difficult to escape the impression that the reshuffle is a part of an exercise with an eye on 2024. If this is true, then it is a sobering thought. We are still three years away from a general election and there could be some truth in the idea that politics in India is never free from the shadow of the next poll.