India to dethrone China as world’s most populated country by 2024: UN

New Delhi

The World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision reportreleased on this week is the 25th round of official UN population estimates andprojections. The demographic report also recorded two other dramatic facts - Thefertility rate of Indians has more than halved over the last 50 years to 2.3and Indians have added almost a decade to their life expectancy in the past 25year which is now nearly 69 years. 

"In 2024, both countries are expected to haveroughly 1.44 billion," which will be an increase from 1.34 billion peoplein India now and 1.41 in China, the report said.

"Thereafter, India's population is projected tocontinue growing for several decades to around 1.5 billion in 2030, andapproaching 1.66 billion in 2050, while the population of China is expected toremain stable until the 2030s, after which it will begin a slow decline."

After 2050, India's population is likely to stabilise andbegin to decline, going down to 1.5 billion by 2100, according to the report'sprojection. By then, China's population would be a little over one billion.

The total fertility rate for India, measured as thenumber of children born to a woman, has fallen from 4.97 during 1975-80 to 2.3for the current period of 2015-20.

By 2025-30 it will be expected to go down to 2.1 andslide to 1.86 during 2045-50 and 1.78 during 2095-2100, the report projected.

A fertility rate of about 2.2 is generally considered thereplacement level, the rate at which the population would hold steady, and whenthe rate dips below this number, the population would decline.

The current world population of 7.6 billion is projectedto hit 8.6 billion by 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion at the turn ofthe century.