Gross Domestic Product set to hit 3-year-low: Government

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) estimate is based on data available till October, Chief Statistician TCA Anant said. This means the impact of demonetisation announced in November is yet to be factored in. 

“It was felt in view of the policy of demonetisation of the currency notes, there is a high degree of volatility in these figures and conscious decision was taken not to make projection using the November figure,” Anant said. 

The anticipated growth of real GVA (gross value added, which excludes taxes and subsidies) in 2016-17 is 7 per cent against 7.2 per cent in 2015-16, said an official statement. Accordingly, the First Advance Estimates of National Income, 2016-17 did not reflect the impact of demonetisation, effected on November 9 for ban of old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes, and are based on sectoral data for only seven months or till October. 

“Being a statistical organisation, the CSO has to go on real statistics and we cannot expect them to go on the basis of impressions and anecdotal evidence,” Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das said. Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 201617 is likely to attain a level of Rs 121.55 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2015-16 of Rs 113.50 lakh crore, released May 31, 2016. 

Earlier on Friday, former Planning Commission chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said the economy is likely to see up to 2 per cent fall in growth at around 5 per cent, a sentiment also shared by the Congress and other parties.