Good days ahead, says IMD monsoon forecast

At a time when several parts were reeling under a neardrought situation, the IMD report ruled out the possibility of a deficient monsoon. Further, it said 96 per cent chances are that the rainfall this year would be normal to excess. 

Releasing the forecast, IMD Director General Laxman Singh Rathore said North-West India will receive 108 per cent rainfall of the Long Period Average (LPA) while central India and southern peninsula, the worst hit during this summer, will receive 113 per cent of LPA. Soon after the forecast was out, an official from Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai confirmed, “Tamil Nadu will also receive good rains this season.” 

In Tamil Nadu, the South West monsoon starts from June to September and the North East monsoon from October. 

Pradeep John, a weather blogger, said that Tamil Nadu this year would receive normal to excess rainfall. “We are expecting good rainfall this month itself. However, the quantum that Tamil Nadu is expected to receive in June will not be on par with the rainfall level during the same period in Northern states,” he says.

About the recent showers in the city, K Srikanth, another weather blogger, says, “The showers in May was due to imbalance in heat levels which caused thunderstorms.”

The North-Eastern Region is expected to get 94 per cent of rainfall which is “below normal”. Anything less than 90 per cent of the LPA is termed as a “deficient” monsoon and 90-96 per cent of the LPA is rated as “below normal”. Monsoon is considered “normal” if the LPA is between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA. “Above normal” monsoon is between 104-110 per cent of the LPA and anything beyond 110 per cent is considered “excess”. 

Agriculture, which contributes 15 pc to GDP and employs about 60 pc of the population, is heavily dependent on the monsoon as only 40 pc of the cultivable area is under irrigation. Due to poor monsoon in 2015-16 crop year (July-June), 10 states have declared drought and the Centre has sanctioned about Rs 10,000 crore by way of relief to help the farmers.