Super El Nino: When the boy comes for the Indian monsoon

CHENNAI: In a warning that causes global concern, international weather agencies have cautioned of a possible Super El Niño weather pattern developing in the coming months, which has the potential to have a drastic impact on the weather across the world including India.

While the term El Niño frequently appears in weather forecasts, it is not often that weather agencies ring alarm bells over it.

Following a prolonged La Niña phase that began in 2024, climate experts, who have been monitoring the Pacific Ocean, said that it was showing significant signs of a shift in weather patterns that could culminate in the Super El Niño phenomenon in 2027. With predictions suggesting an increased likelihood of a Super El Niño event occurring early next year, it is imperative to understand the climate pattern and its potential impact on India’s agricultural economy and food security.

While the southwest monsoon may have a negative impact due to El Niño, it could work well for the northeast monsoon season where we can expect abundant rainfall. This could mean that not every El Niño leads to a drought —Srikanth, city-based weather blogger

Warm phase

According to the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there are three ocean states or phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle namely the El Niño (warm phase), La Niña (cold phase) and

Some of the key implications of El Niño could include the kharif crop production taking a hit owing to insufficient or erratic rainfall. Also, less rainfall means less water flowing into India’s major reservoirs

neutral. These phases that occur in the Pacific Ocean represent shifts in sea surface temperatures and trade winds, which have the capacity to affect global weather, ecosystems and ocean temperatures.

Climatic experts describe El Niño as a natural climate event that originates in the Pacific when surface water temperatures become significantly warmer than normal.

This affects wind patterns and atmospheric circulation across the globe, which also includes India where it significantly suppresses rainfall levels during the southwest monsoon season.

It may be noted that the Spanish term ‘El Niño’ which translates to ‘the boy’ originated among the South American fishermen community years ago when they first noticed the warm currents appearing around December. However, as days went by, the term has been widely used across the globe to describe the powerful weather phenomenon.

Impact on India

The southwest monsoon is the lifeline of Indian agriculture, delivering about 70 percent of the country’s annual rainfall. However, El Niño can disrupt this system in several ways, warned Chennai-based weather blogger K Srikanth.

“Typically the La Niña phase has ended and El Niño is gradually building up. For India, this could mean that the summer of 2027 will see a significant rise in temperatures which can have a negative impact on rainfall, especially affecting the farmers,” he recalled. “In a similar fashion, the 2015 El Niño had caused a particularly hot summer that resulted in several droughts across the world in 2016.”

Below are some factors that can be witnessed if the Super El Niño phenomenon occurs in 2027:

Reduced rainfall: The monsoon may deliver less than normal of the long-term average rainfall which could be categorised as deficient.

Delayed onset: The arrival of monsoon rains in several parts of the country can be pushed back by several days or weeks.

Prolonged dry spells: Even during the monsoon season, there could be periods with no rainfall for a week or more.

Higher temperatures: El Niño years often bring more intense heatwaves before and during the monsoon. For millions of farmers across India, an El Niño prediction signals potential trouble ahead. Sadly for them, El Niño not only brings with it the intense heat, there could also be instances where it brings unprecedented rainfall in some areas, which could be a double whammy for the agriculture sector.

Some of the key implications of El Niño could include the kharif crop production taking a hit owing to insufficient or erratic rainfall. Apart from this, less rainfall means less water flowing into India’s major reservoirs, which can have an impact on the country’s drinking water supply and irrigation.

Subsequently, the domino effect could result in rising food prices and crop failure or lower yields which could directly affect the farmers.

Risk for Tamil Nadu

While several parts of North India, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal have faced the wrath of El Niño patterns previously, Srikanth explained that in contrast, parts of Tamil Nadu and coastal Kerala can sometimes receive near-normal rainfall during El Niño events due to other compensating weather systems.

“Normally when the ocean heats up around the end of the year, the land absorbs the heat eventually leading to hot summers,” he elaborated. “But it works in two ways: while the southwest monsoon may have a negative impact because of El Niño, it could work well for the northeast monsoon season where we can expect abundant rainfall. This could mean that not every El Niño leads to a drought as other factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is a similar temperature pattern in the Indian Ocean can sometimes offset the negative effects and ensure that there is a steady spell of rains during the northeast monsoon.”

Experts opined that while El Niño was a serious concern with western models showing a 62% chance of the phenomenon occurring in 2027 and there is “real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years”, it was not a sure shot prediction of disaster. Early warning of the event has given people, especially farmers and authorities an opportunity to take preventive measures.

However, with climate change making weather patterns more unpredictable, authorities observed that awareness and being better prepared to handle such events were the best way to mitigate any damage across the agriculture, health and water management sectors.